Week 7 of the NFL season gets going Thursday night with a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5) in Glendale, Arizona. New Orleans (2-4) is coming off a 30-26 loss to the Bengals, and Arizona (2-4) is off an ugly 19-9 loss to the Seahawks and still looking for its first home win. Throw out the records and Thursday's game still offers plenty of ways to wager, if you so choose. So what plays do we like for this tilt?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Saints have lost four of five, and the Cardinals three of the past four entering Thursday night's matchup. With the Cardinals 1.5-point favorites, which team do you like to right the ship?
Marks: The Saints are dealing with a plethora of injuries, starting quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton -- and as of Wednesday morning there is no indication of which one will start. Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, along with DB Marshon Lattimore are all expected to be out. The Cardinals are dealing with injuries to running backs James Conner and Eno Benjamin, and WR Hollywood Brown has been placed on IR. However, they do get DeAndre Hopkins back in the mix. This game is a crapshoot to me (I have a small lean on the Cards laying -1.5).
The play for me in this matchup is betting the Saints in the first half. This will be the third week in a row I have bet against the Cards in the first half, and it has paid off. They have been outscored 41-3 in the first quarter this season and have led for only 3% of their drives. Crazy as this sounds, they're the worst team in the NFL in the first half of games but the best in the second. In fact, 49% of their points this season have been scored in the fourth quarter. Therefore, I will play Saints money line first quarter (-110), Saints ML first half (Even), and, if the first half plays out as expected, Cards fourth quarter -1 (+125).
Fitz: Yet again, points should be at a premium in this matchup, and both sides are dealing with their fair share of injuries. Not knowing who will start for New Orleans on top of not knowing what reps anyone has had for the last week and a half only makes me feel like it's even harder to trust the Saints here. Kyler may not have his full cupboard of ingredients to cook with, but he is the better quarterback in this game -- and that matters even more than usual on Thursday nights. I should get shirts made that say "hammer the under" with the Thursday Night Football logo, but this is more of the same. Low points and the Cardinals get the ugly win.
Snellings: I'm with Anita on the very clear first/second-half trends for the Cardinals. They are a night-and-day team in those halves, with their first-half struggles a stronger trend than their second-half successes. Add in the Saints' offensive question marks and I see a really low-scoring first half overall. As such, I like Saints money line first half (+105) and first half total points under 22 (-110).
Schatz: I'm picking the Saints here, although there's no point in going with 1.5 points. I would rather just take the Saints money line. The issue here is about expectations before the season. Research shows us that our priors are still important, even six games into the season. New Orleans (26th) and Arizona (29th) are very close in our DVOA ratings at Football Outsiders, but we had New Orleans projected to be the better team primarily because of defense. The Saints defense certainly has not lived up to our projections, but defense is fairly inconsistent; our prior knowledge is valuable, and the Saints defense will probably be better than this going forward. Add in that the Cardinals have gotten so much from Marquise Brown this season -- his loss means the addition of DeAndre Hopkins will not be as much of an upgrade -- and I like the Saints to win a close one.
The NBA season is here. Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today! Play for free
DeAndre Hopkins returns from his six-game suspension for the Cardinals. What props are you interested in taking in his first game back?
Fitz: Hopkins will make an immediate difference because he has to in order to save the Cardinals offense. Murray is comfortable pressing the ball to him and will put the ball up aggressively to his top option. My question is what does that do for the Murray interception prop. I like Kyler to turn the ball over in this game, given the probable lack of timing and the predictable aggressiveness throwing to his guy.
Thursday night unders are 5-1 this season. The total is 44.5. The past four Cardinals games have gone under, while the Saints have played three straight overs, allowing 28-plus points in all three. Which side of the total are you on?
Fitz: Under. All day.
Both teams are 2-4 and a game back of the 3-3 logjam for the final NFC playoff spot. Arizona is +500 to make the playoffs, while the Saints are +400. Are you playing either one?
Snellings: I am playing both, with a heavier emphasis on the Cardinals. Both teams have dealt with major player absences thus far and are still only a game out of first in their particular divisions. But, while a healthy Buccaneers team is still the clear favorite in the South, I don't feel like there's any separation at all in the NFC West. The Cardinals losing Hollywood Brown hurts, but bringing in both DeAndre Hopkins and Robbie Anderson still has the potential to unlock the Cardinals' offense the way they were through their dominant first 11 games last season. James Conner should be returning soon as well, and if the Cards are able to find their offensive stride (and start showing up before halftime) they still have a legitimate chance to win their division (+1200), let alone just make the playoffs.
Schatz: I would stay away from both of these bets. Our playoff odds simulation puts the Saints in the playoffs 18% of the time and the Cardinals just 7% of the time. Yes, the NFL has a lot of 3-3 and 2-4 teams this year, but there are differences between them when you look at the underlying play-by-play performance, and the Cardinals and Saints are among the league's worst teams so far. Arizona in particular has to deal with the fourth-toughest remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent.
What else are you playing in this game?
Marks: Taysom Hill anytime TD (+140) and Chris Olave OVER. With all the injuries the Saints are dealing with, especially on a short work week, Hill was one of the few offensive skilled position players able to participate in full practices. There is so much he can do and so many ways he can contribute. I expect Hill to be a solid part of the game plan.
Olave has been cleared and is ready to suit back up Thursday night. Thomas and Landry will be inactive, and Olave should receive a ton of targets (he has seen a target share between 25-32% each game). He has 26 targets on the season and has posted 14 catches for 247 yards. Especially if Winston is under center, watch out.
Fortenbaugh: Zach Ertz UNDER 48.5 receiving yards. This one may seem strange considering the fact that Ertz ranks third in the NFL in targets at the tight end position, but hear me out: the Saints defend opposing tight ends about as well as anybody in the league, having permitted just 20 receptions (fourth-fewest) for 177 yards (fourth-fewest) through six contests this season. Ertz is averaging 49.3 receiving yards per game but has topped 48 receiving yards in just two of six outings. With Hopkins now in the mix, I'm betting Ertz's targets decrease a bit.
Snellings: Alvin Kamara over 61.5 rushing yards, Kamara over 98.5 total yards, Taysom Hill to score a touchdown (+106). The matchup between the Saints' running game and the Cardinals' defense is interesting. The Cards have been solid against the run this season, having allowed only 480 rushing yards on 109 attempts through the first six games. You know who has a very similar defensive rushing profile? The Cincinnati Bengals (497 rushing yards allowed on 117 attempts), who the Saints just gashed on the ground for 228 yards on 34 carries. The combination of a healthy Kamara with the regular interspersing of Taysom Hill at wildcat quarterback can be overpowering, and I expect the Saints to lean on that running game early and often on Thursday ... particularly finding success in the first half before the Cardinals wake up. So, I like most of the Saints' rushing props on Thursday
Moody: Kamara over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards, Hopkins over 4.5 receptions. The Saints will be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, so I'm expecting a heavy dose of Kamara. He has averaged 23.7 touches and 130.4 total yards per game over his last three games. The Cardinals defense gave up 108 total yards to Kenneth Walker III last week. There is a good chance history repeats itself with Kamara. In his first game back after his suspension, Hopkins may play a limited number of his snaps, but he will play a huge role in Arizona's offense. Hopkins has averaged 8.6 targets and 6.0 receptions per game for the Cardinals in his career and should thrive against a Saints defense without Marshon Lattimore