Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with an AFC West clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 54.5) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. With the season now in full swing, there are plenty of opportunities to wager on the game if you so choose. So what plays do our analysts like in a matchup of Super Bowl hopefuls?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for Thursday's tilt.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Chargers at Chiefs (-4, 54.5)
Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
The Chiefs and Chargers are both off impressive wins in Week 1, with the Chiefs blowing out the Cardinals in Arizona and the Chargers holding off the Raiders. KC is laying four points with a total of 54.5. What do you like in this matchup in terms of side and total?
Fortenbaugh: I'd lean to the Chargers +4, but it's not a bet I love. I think Kansas City's blowout win over Arizona last week was more indicative of how bad the Cardinals are going to be this season. In that matchup, the Chiefs were unstoppable in averaging an astounding 7.4 yards per play while converting five of eight third down opportunities and holding the ball for 34 minutes and 42 seconds. I don't see that happening on Thursday night, thus, I think it's a much tighter game.
Fulghum: I like the Chargers to win this division, so I'll take the points with LA, especially if the Chiefs catch some steam. I'll also yield to the under 54.5 despite the two QBs involved in the matchup. The Chargers defense created all kinds of havoc (six sacks, three INTs) against the Raiders while limiting Las Vegas to just 19 points. And don't sleep on the Chiefs defense, which suffocated the Cardinals until they added a couple of late cosmetic touchdowns.
Kezirian: I don't see value on either side. I expect the line to come down to 3.5 or 3 points, but it's hard to predict since Patrick Mahomes is now the MVP betting favorite. Kansas City feels like a team that's fresh and going to be a good bet for the first six games or so. However, the Chargers are a contender, and I don't want to lay too many points against them. Ultimately, if I had to play anything, I'd lean to the under.
Marks: I'll take the Chargers with the points, as well as the under 54.5. I believe there is an overreaction to the Chargers missing Keenan Allen on Thursday night, but they still have Justin Herbert and a plethora of playmakers to work with. The Chiefs were able to put up 44 points against the Cardinals, but this Chargers defense will be a different animal for Mahomes and crew. KC will also be without kicker Harrison Butker, which will be a huge loss if this game comes down to the wire. The over is 6-1 in the last seven Thursday night games with a total at or above 54.5.
Schatz: I'm going to be counterintuitive and go with under 54.5 in this contest. We think that the Chiefs and Chargers offenses are as good as they were last year, but we don't know this early in the season. The Chiefs still need to adapt to their new receiving corps, and the Chargers will be without Allen. The Chargers defense, in particular, also looks to be much better than it was a year ago. And interestingly, both of these teams played at a slower pace in Week 1 than they did last year. The first Chiefs-Chargers game last year narrowly went under the total, and I like this one to do so as well.
Fitz: I picked the Chargers to win the division, and nothing I saw in Week 1 changed that for me. Pro Football Focus metrics credit Herbert for preventing three sacks and gave the Raiders the fifth-best pressure percentage. That speaks to the fact that the Chargers still have offensive line issues, and I trust the Chiefs defense more to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. Combine that with the fact that the Chiefs feasted on an Arizona defense that doesn't have the secondary that the Chargers have and it makes me love the under in this game. This feels like a tight game, but I like the Chargers to sneak out the win and show the AFC that they belong in that top shelf conversation right next to Buffalo.
Moody: Herbert and Mahomes had impressive season debuts, combining for 639 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. With both offenses riding high, they go head-to-head in what looks to be the AFC West's first-place battle. The point total for this game is the highest over/under line of Week 2. When you factor in that the Chargers will be without wide receiver Keenan Allen, that this game is on a Thursday and that the first matchup between these two teams went under 54.5 points last season, my recommendation is the under. Last season, 12 out of 17 Thursday Night Football games went under 54.5 points. Los Angeles' defense is much better than advertised. In terms of the spread, I would lean towards Chargers +4, as these division games are usually close.
Snellings: I'll diverge from the group and give the points to take the Chiefs. The Chiefs' offense absolutely dominated a Cardinals defense that, at least last season, ranked similarly to the Chargers' defense against the pass and opposing quarterbacks. With Tyreek Hill now in Miami, the Chiefs' offense is so multiple this season with so many targets with diverse skill sets for Mahomes to target that the unit may actually be more robust this season than a year ago. The Chargers looked good against the Raiders, particularly on defense, but Allen's absence will be felt and the Chargers' offense may be hard-pressed to keep up on the road on a short week.
I will join the group in taking the under in this game. With two likely underrated defenses and the quick turnaround of a Thursday night game at a time in the season where the defenses are seemingly more advanced than the offenses league-wide, 54.5 just seems like a very large number
Both teams are considered among the AFC favorites, as the Chiefs (+450) are the second favorite and the Chargers (+700) are third. Are you buying one of them before this game or have you already?
Fulghum: The Chargers are my pick to win the AFC, so I already have investment in this team. But if you have not yet bought into them and like their chances, wait until after this game and hope that the Chiefs hand them a loss. Especially if it's an unimpressive performance by the Chargers, you will earn some significant savings on that future price.
Kezirian: The futures options in index bets are something I am reluctant to play, given the offerings' one-way nature. It's tough finding value in that type of market, especially with relatively low payouts. Sorry to be a Negative Nancy, but I do not see any value on these teams right now.
Marks: I have been preaching for months now that the Chargers win the division. They improved the offensive line in the offseason by drafting Zion Johnson, and they added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to their defense. This is Herbert's year to shine, and I also played him early on to win MVP at 11-1.
Schatz: I'll buy the Chargers at +700 because I do think they're a more well-rounded team than the Chiefs. We project them to improve to a top-five defense once Jackson is healthy. Maybe that's a little bit of an overreach, but their defense should definitely be much better than last year. The offense may not quite match Kansas City, but it's very good. Most importantly, look at the schedule difference between the two teams. In the three games that are determined by last year's standings, the Chiefs have to play Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Buffalo while the Chargers play Cleveland (with Jacoby Brissett), Atlanta and Miami. Those three games could be the difference in the division and thus playoff seeding, perhaps sending the Chargers to the Super Bowl over the Chiefs.
Walder: FPI shows light value on the Chargers, making the fair price +529. But if I'm looking at futures for AFC West teams, I'd rather wager on the Chargers' chance to win the division at +190 (behind the Chiefs at +125). This is where there's a huge difference with FPI, which makes the Chargers favorites with a whopping 50% projection. This has to do with the model being high on the Chargers and down on the Chiefs, yes, but also because the Chiefs face a much more difficult schedule than the Chargers -- and that can make a significant difference.
Fitz: Of the two bets, I prefer the Chargers -- but Buffalo made the rest of the AFC look silly in Week 1. This is the Bills' conference to lose, but if that were to happen, I'll take a Chargers team that has more playmakers on both sides of the ball over anyone else in the AFC West.
Moody: I would buy the Chargers prior to this game. They looked lethal on Sunday after an offseason where they did everything they could to prepare for the 2022 Super Bowl run. There is no doubt the Chargers have the best roster in all of the NFL. The Chiefs have won six straight AFC West titles, and the Broncos won five straight before that. During that time, the Chargers have made the playoffs only twice, and they share the city of Los Angeles and SoFi Stadium with the Super Bowl champion Rams. If the Chargers were to win two games against AFC West rivals before Week 3, bettors would take them even more seriously. Now is the time to lock in the value.
Snellings: Of the two, I would be more likely to take the Chiefs at their odds than the Chargers at theirs. I'm just not sold on the Chargers being favorites to make the leap from non-playoffs to conference champion. The Chiefs and the Bills both have similar caliber teams, and both Mahomes and Allen have proven that they're capable of reaching Jedi level in the postseason to make their already formidable teams that much more dangerous. Then, of the teams behind the Chargers in the standings, I have at least the Ravens (+900) and the Bengals (+1400) at a similar or higher level than the Chargers, and I'd be more likely to bet either of them than the Chargers at this time.
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Patrick Mahomes looked like he didn't miss a beat without Tyreek Hill, passing for five TDS at Arizona. He jumped over Josh Allen as the NFL MVP favorite at +500. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is behind Allen at +550. Are you playing either one of them for MVP?
Fulghum: Herbert was my pick to win the MVP prior to the season, and nothing he did in Week 1 has me concerned about his chances. He's a stud, and what lines up for him is the spotlight he'll have on him at the end of the season. The Chargers play the Colts on Monday Night Football in Week 16, the Rams on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 and then have a matchup with Russell Wilson and the Broncos in Week 18 that could have significant playoff implications.
Kezirian: This market will fluctuate throughout the season, and we will see quarterbacks surpass one another a few more times. The question is whether you think the current prices are the highest that will be offered. I do not, so I am going to pass right now and wait until I can beat the oddsmakers and sniff out a path for one to make a run.
Schatz: Mahomes was my MVP choice in the preseason, so I'm sorry if you missed a chance to get him at preseason odds. Yes, he had (relatively) down stats last season, but our knowledge of player quality is based on more than just the most recent year. Given what he's done over multiple seasons, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and should be the MVP favorite every year.
Fitz: To be frank, no. And while we saw greatness from Travis Kelce in the Chiefs' opening week win over Arizona ... it was Arizona! I still expect a drop-off in production over the course of the season. I know the trendy take is no Tyreek will make Kansas City better offensively, but I'm still not buying it. Harry Douglas told me that his team's defensive coordinators used to spend days game planning "game wreckers." You don't lose that advantage and not have it impact, in my opinion.
Moody: I wouldn't prioritize Mahomes or Herbert. One riser that I'd play is Jalen Hurts at +1400. The Eagles positioned the young quarterback for success during the offseason by acquiring A.J. Brown. Hurts displayed his dual threat ability in Week 1 against the Lions, showing a similar skill set which captivated voters and positioned Lamar Jackson to win the award in 2019. This is a make or break season for Hurts. Voters could rally around him if he delivers. Dak Prescott's thumb injury has also improved the Eagles' chances of winning the NFC East. Hurts is shaping up to be a nice value.
Snellings: I'm not playing either at their current odds, but if I had to I would bet Mahomes at +450 before Herbert at +700. Mahomes looks poised to have a big statistical season on a still very successful Chiefs team, and with the narrative that he'll be carrying more of a load without Hill, he has the inside track for a successful MVP bid. With that said, there are plenty of elite quarterbacks likely to lead very successful teams with longer odds that I'd prefer to bet for the MVP. Tom Brady at +1200, Jalen Hurts at +1400, Lamar Jackson at +1500 and Joe Burrow at +1600 are all better bets, in my opinion, than either Mahomes or Herbert at their shorter odds.
With two teams full of playmakers, there are plenty of props to go around for the game. Which player props are you taking?
Fortenbaugh: Austin Ekeler over 37.5 receiving yards (-125). The Kansas City defense is susceptible to pass-catchers coming out of the backfield. Case in point: Last season, the Chiefs surrendered 109 receptions (fourth in the NFL) for 887 receiving yards (third in the NFL) to opposing running backs. That trend continued in Week 1 at Arizona, as Cardinals running backs Eno Benjamin and James Connor combined to record eight receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards. In two games against the Chiefs last season, Ekeler racked up 10 receptions on 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown.
Marks: Ekeler over 4.5 receptions (-139). Ekeler caught all four passes thrown his way for 36 receiving yards in Week 1. With Allen out for this game, that target share should increase. He averaged 24.6 passing routes per game last season and had 14 in Week 1. I also like Joshua Palmer over 46.5 receiving yards (-131). Palmer now becomes the second option behind Mike Williams without Allen on the field. The Chargers went to 11 personnel only 58% of the time in Week 1, which benefits Palmer as the legit No. 2 opposite Williams
Dolan: Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (-111). Mahomes threw 13 picks last season and three of those were in the two games against the Chargers. While he did not throw an interception against the Cardinals in Week 1, the Chargers' front four led by Joey Bosa and Mack will pressure him and ultimately he will throw a pick. Plus, the Chargers defense snagged three interceptions against the Raiders in Week 1.
Walder: Mahomes under 27.5 completions (-115). I'd wager that Chargers head coach Brandon Staley will employ some awfully light boxes this week in hopes of baiting the Chiefs into running the ball (or throwing vs. more defensive backs). That idea is lightly factored into my projection of 25.6 completions; Staley used slightly fewer defenders in the box relative to expectation last season. But now that Staley has been reunited with run-stuffer extraordinaire Sebastian Joseph-Day, I think he could lean more into light boxes, which lead to fewer opponent pass attempts and fewer opponent pass completions.
Fitz: Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-204). He has hit the over on that number in 34 out of the 44 games he has played in the NFL to date and three of the four times he has faced Kansas City. The only exception was his first ever start in the NFL, and I think we all agree it has only gone uphill from there.
Moody: Three come to mind. Ekeler should play a greater role in the Chargers' passing game with Allen out. I'd take Ekeler over 37.5 receiving yards (-125). Ekeler caught all six of his targets for 52 yards in Week 1. JuJu Smith-Schuster had the second-most targets in his Chiefs debut against the Cardinals last week, and his 79 receiving yards were his fifth-highest total over the last 28 games. Mahomes and Chiefs head coach and offensive maestro Andy Reid should make this a more frequent occurrence. I'd take Smith-Schuster over 56.5 receiving yards (-131) against a Chargers defense that Davante Adams torched in Week 1. Last but not least, take Josh Palmer over 44.5 yards receiving (-145). Palmer flourished last season in the one game Allen was inactive. He caught five of seven targets for 66 receiving yards
Snellings: I'll go with Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 16.5 receiving yards (-133). For health and personnel reasons, I expect CEH's deployment this season to be much more similar to his rookie campaign than last season's down effort. As a rookie, CEH averaged 2.8 receptions on 4.2 targets for 22.9 yards per game. In the opener, CEH grabbed three receptions for 32 yards and two touchdowns. With the Chargers focusing on rushing Mahomes and limiting his downfield options, I look for CEH to again provide pressure relief with several catches out of the backfield.