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Indianapolis Colts' wild-card hopes ride on beating good teams, starting with Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Bucs

INDIANAPOLIS – The days of playing the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are basically gone for the Indianapolis Colts.

What’s significant of those teams?

Those are the teams the Colts have their five victories against to help turn their 1-4 start this season into their current 5-5 record.

Those teams also all have losing records.

Catching the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South and get an automatic playoff spot is becoming more and more a distant memory as each week passes. That's because the Titans are three games ahead in the division, have already beaten the Colts twice and are showing no signs of slowing down, despite losing Derrick Henry for the season after Week 8.

Earning a wild-card playoff berth is still a possibility for the Colts, though. The first step is for them to handle their business by winning games and then by getting help from other teams. There are seven teams all within a game of each other for the final two playoff spots in the AFC.

“We dug a deep hole in the beginning,” Colts center Ryan Kelly said. “We went the long way around to get to .500, but to be 5-5 is huge when you were sitting at 1-4 at one point. Those have been some growing pains that this team had to go through. I think that we continue to see when the offense is doing real well, carry the defense, and vice versa. … We’ve just got to put it all together for four quarters.”

The Colts have not beaten a team that had a winning record at the time of the game since they took down the Las Vegas Raiders on Dec. 13, 2020. That’s eight straight losses against playoff teams for the Colts.

Indianapolis’ next two games are Sunday (1 p.m ET, CBS) at the Buffalo Bills, in a rematch of last season’s wild-card playoff game, and then at home against Tom Brady and the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following weekend. The Colts have lost four straight to the Bills in Buffalo, and they have not beaten a Brady-led team since the 2009 season.

“This is big — especially the first one,” Colts coach Frank Reich said about Sunday’s game against the Bills. “There’s a lot of good teams in the AFC, but no one’s just taken over. So why can’t it be us? Why can’t the Indianapolis Colts take over right now?

“So, if we’re going do it, we gotta prove it this weekend in Buffalo against a very good football team. That’ll be fun.”

Reich said he recently had a conversation with a member of the organization and compared this season to 2018, his first as Colts head coach, when they started 1-5 before responding to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.

“There’s some light, not in complete darkness anymore,” Reich said. “Feels like you’re in a hole where there’s nothing pleasant about it. This is a week-to-week league. Seems like this year more than ever, never know what’s going to happen.”

In order to get to at least 10 victories this season, the Colts will have to win several games against teams quarterbacked by the likes of Brady, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr and Mac Jones. That’s a significant upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills and Josh Johnson at the quarterback position.

The Colts have won four of their past five games, but their last two victories (Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets) left questions about whether they’re ready to take the next step to beat playoff-caliber teams.

The Colts gave up almost 500 yards on defense to a Jets team that was down to its third-string quarterback, and then the offense sputtered along after jumping out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead against the Jaguars on Sunday.

The margin of error is very slim for Indianapolis in its final seven games. Going through a stretch of punting on seven of nine drives and having to settle for field goals on the other two drives like they did against Jacksonville won’t cut it.

On the other hand, the Colts started showing signs of what they hope is an improved pass rush for the stretch run of the season when they sacked Jacksonville rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence three times and hit him an additional 10 times.

“I think we’re a team that’s getting better. I think we’re a team that’s, really, our core is what we do up front,” Reich said. “We’re going to ride that strength both offensively and defensively. What I also know about this team is that this team has no quit in it. This team is going to fight. Great chemistry on this team. Great talent on this team. And I think we’re a team getting better.”

They better be improving, because if they aren't, they’ll be starting their offseason in early January.