Week 18 and the NFL regular season concludes Sunday night with an important game between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field (ESPN, 8:20 ET). If the Packers win, they clinch a playoff spot. (The Lions can only make the playoffs if they win and the Seahawks lose to the Rams in the earlier game.)
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer their insights into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-5, 49)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. at Lambeau Field
The Packers and Lions face off on "Sunday Night Football," chasing the final playoff spot in the NFC. Both teams are coming off 41-point performances last week. What are your thoughts on the spread and total for this game and who do you see coming out victorious?
Fulghum: Packers -4.5. Aaron Rodgers is 28-4 at Lambeau Field in December/January regular-season games. In a "must win" situation with a playoff spot on the line, I believe the Packers finish out the 5-0 close to the season needed to qualify for the postseason and they do so with a cover. The offense is generally healthy, the defense is playing its best football of the year and the Lions' offense is nowhere near as efficient as it is when playing at home inside Ford Field.
Schatz: Lions +4.5. The Packers are hot and seem to have gotten their act together... but the Lions are just as hot. In fact, Detroit is the No. 2 offense in the league by DVOA over the past six weeks, while Green Bay ranks eighth. Our weighted DVOA ratings have Detroit as the No. 7 team in the league right now, with Green Bay at No. 9. The Lions' defense isn't very good but happens to be strongest where the Packers' offense is strongest: up the middle, where Detroit ranks second in defensive DVOA while Rodgers has more value on passes up the middle than to either side. I'm not calling for a Lions win but this is closer to a coin flip than the line indicates and I'm happy to take the Lions and the points.
Marks: Lions +4.5. This is a difficult play -- considering -- if the Seahawks beat the Rams, the Lions will be playing for nothing. The Packers are in a win-and-in scenario. I believe Dan Campbell will have his team inspired to win, and finish the season 9-8, but if Seattle wins -- the Packers will have more to play for. I have the Packers winning, but the Lions covering so give me Detroit and the points.
Fortenbaugh: I really want to bet the Lions because the entire world will be backing Green Bay, but given the fact that Detroit would be eliminated with a Seahawks win over the Rams, I can't possibly bet this game at the current moment.
What is your best bet for this game?
Schatz: It's counterintuitive, but I like going under 49. Yes, these teams are both better on offense than defense and have been better in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. But this is going to be a cold outdoor game, below freezing, between two division rivals. Their last game had only 24 combined points. And don't forget that Green Bay has the slowest-paced offense in the league this year. Slower pace means less scoring for both teams.
What is your favorite player prop for this game?
Marks: Jamaal Williams anytime TD. Williams has contract incentives heading into this matchup. He is 6 rushing yards away from 1,000 and is at 15 touchdowns. I will play the over in carries, rushing yards and anytime TD for Williams heading into this matchup considering there is $250K on the line.