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New York Jets' Robert Saleh still believes in 'the formula' despite bad start

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:

1. History on their side: It looks bleak at 2-7, with too many blowout losses, but the decision-makers at One Jets Drive are adhering to a three-year rebuilding plan that was hatched in January 2020 by general manager Joe Douglas. You can't see tangible results yet (4-21 under said plan), but they believe it's working and will open a window from 2023 to 2028 that allows them to compete with the big boys.

The tear-it-down, go-young approach invites gut punches, especially in an impatient market such as New York, but there's leaguewide data that supports the philosophy.

The Jets are on pace to reach 9,000 combined snaps for rookies, first-year and second-year players -- a plateau reached by only a handful of teams each year. That's serious youth. Of the 19 teams that reached 9,000 snaps from 2017 to 2019, 13 saw an increase in wins the following year, most notably the 2017-2018 Cleveland Browns (+7). The average increase was 3.8 wins. Eight of the 19 made the playoffs the year after.

There's your empirical hope.

The Jets are playing more rookies than any team in recent years, according to the data. That puts a strain on the head coach. Except for one glaring exception -- the Joe Flacco-over-Mike White choice at quarterback -- Robert Saleh has remained true to the methodical game plan.

"This is the formula," Saleh told ESPN. "You inject your team with youth, you get on the football field, you let them go through all their lumps and you let them get their experience. Eventually, they'll start triggering and all that explosive ability will unleash."

What about a sense of urgency?

"That urgency has led to a lot of decisions that put this organization in the situation it was in before Joe got here," said Saleh, alluding to the previous decade of questionable moves.

When this started in January 2020, the team's brass saw a roster alarmingly low on homegrown talent. Two drafts and two free agency cycles later, the organization believes it finally has climbed back to zero. It's still early, but 2021 looks like a "foundational draft." (Saleh's words.) Douglas has to crush the 2022 draft (nine picks), and then maybe they can turn the proverbial corner.

Saleh's honeymoon is waning, with fan-base unrest mounting, but he seems unfazed. He has experienced the pain of rebuilding in his four previous stops -- two failures (Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans) and two successes (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers).

"The same thing happened in Seattle," he said. "We were playing with a bunch of nobodies and it turned into the Legion of Boom. I'm not saying that's going to happen here, but it's the best chance you have to build a champion rather than playing the free-agency game and trying to buy a roster."

2. Zach back? My understanding is there's a very good chance quarterback Zach Wilson will be able to return next Sunday against the Texans. Taking a conservative approach, the Jets want to make sure he's 100% -- a smart move. They would've been more aggressive with a seasoned pro, but they don't want to push a 21-year-old rookie who was struggling before the injury.

3. Cup of Joe: Even though he's starting Sunday, Flacco has little chance of reaching the playing-time threshold set forth in the parameters of his trade from the Philadelphia Eagles, who received a 2022 conditional sixth-round pick from the Jets. He'd have to play in at least 50% of the snaps in four different games to elevate the pick to the fifth-rounder, a source confirmed. Basically, he'd have to start four of the remaining eight games -- unlikely.

4. White out: Understandably, White was stung by his surprise benching, but he's definitely part of the Jets' immediate future. They're planning to tender him as a restricted free agent, a projected $2.4 million for the low tender or $3.9 million for the second-round tender, per Over The Cap. They expect White to draw interest from other teams, which will play into their strategy.

5. Did you know? The Jets have allowed 175 points in the last four games. The celebrated 2000 Baltimore Ravens allowed 165 in 16 games.

6. Load management: Some might be wondering why defensive tackle Quinnen Williams isn't on the field more often. After all, he is their best defensive player. The reason is because they operate a defensive-line rotation that has limited him to 61% of the snaps. A year ago, he was at 75% in the 13 games he played.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said their attacking scheme is so physically demanding that it's unrealistic to expect a lineman to play 60 snaps per game -- and play well. They believe in the system, and they're not going to bend.

Statistically, Williams is producing at a slightly better rate than last year in the major categories, which suggests the system works. You just wonder if there's more out there for him. You also wonder how it will impact talks at the bargaining table; Williams is eligible for a new deal after the season. Better numbers mean a bigger contract. He's 22nd in defensive snaps among interior linemen, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

7. MC hammer: At 5-foot-8 and 201 pounds, Michael Carter is hardly what you'd call a bruising back, but he's difficult to bring down because of his toughness and exceptional balance. The rookie averages 1.82 yards per rush after first contact, which is pretty good for one of the smallest running backs in the league.

"His balance is pretty incredible," offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said. "He doesn't go down on the first contact and it's not because he's Jerome Bettis, with people bouncing off him. He's just a slippery dude with great contact-balance and a will and a want-to."

Carter is effective between the tackles, but now it's time to break a long run. His longest gain is only 18 yards.

8. Unlucky 13: This may not seem like a big deal in the grand scheme, but it's a sign of sloppiness. The Jets are tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the most penalties on special teams -- 13, per ESPN Stats & Information. Arizona can get away with that because it has a good team. The Jets, not so much.

9. Where are the leaders? Former Jets star John Abraham, sixth on the team's all-time sack list (53.5), keeps up with his old team on TV. As a former defensive player, it hurts him to see what has become of the defense.

"I think they're missing a big-name pass rusher, and also it seems like the team never is coordinated together," Abraham said on this week's ESPN "Flight Deck" podcast. "I don't know if they have that leader. When Jamal (Adams) was there, you could see that leadership in him."

Abraham acknowledged there could be behind-the-scenes leadership that no one sees, but "the leadership on the field is not there."

10. The last word: "Sometimes I'm like, 'Is that the same Joe Flacco from the Super Bowl?' It is. That's Joe. It used to be Joe Flacco. Now it's Joe." -- Carter, who was 13 years old when Flacco won a Super Bowl with the Ravens in February 2013