NBA Finals: A closer look at the Warriors-Cavaliers matchup

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors both have star power, but which players can be counted on to make a big offensive or defensive play in the Finals? Let's rank the 10 starters by both offensive and defensive Real Plus/Minus, a stat measuring a player's net point differential per 100 possessions. Also included: league percentiles in Points Per Play for all plays, to see strengths and weaknesses.

Offensive RPM
▼

Off. percentiles
▼

1Stephen
Curry

7.05


Transition	69
Isolation	93
P&R, ball handler	78
P&R, roll man	85
Post-up
Spot up	97
Handoff	86
Cut	39
Off screen	91
Putbacks	45
Misc.	77

2 LeBron
James

6.18


Transition	71
Isolation	77
P&R, ball handler	84
P&R, roll man	96
Post-up	72
Spot up	66
Handoff	30
Cut	94
Off screen	20
Putbacks	85
Misc.	40

3Kevin
Durant

4.25


Transition	91
Isolation	89
P&R, ball handler	85
P&R, roll man	57
Post-up	55
Spot up	95
Handoff	88
Cut	91
Off screen	84
Putbacks	99
Misc.	83

4Kyrie
Irving

4.15


Transition	59
Isolation	95
P&R, ball handler	83
P&R, roll man	7
Post-up	78
Spot up	85
Handoff	73
Cut	96
Off screen	85
Putbacks	6
Misc.	70

5Klay
Thompson

2.92


Transition	71
Isolation	95
P&R, ball handler	75
P&R, roll man
Post-up	19
Spot up	88
Handoff	27
Cut	72
Off screen	70
Putbacks	30
Misc.	98

6Kevin
Love

2.70


Transition	55
Isolation	51
P&R, ball handler
P&R, roll man	22
Post-up	45
Spot up	90
Handoff
Cut	75
Off screen	83
Putbacks	36
Misc.	85

7Draymond
Green

1.57


Transition	22
Isolation	5
P&R, ball handler	16
P&R, roll man	15
Post-up	9
Spot up	47
Handoff
Cut	57
Off screen	22
Putbacks	12
Misc.	8

8Zaza
Pachulia

-0.28


Transition	92
Isolation	14
P&R, ball handler
P&R, roll man	72
Post-up	18
Spot up	17
Handoff
Cut	39
Off screen
Putbacks	21
Misc.	10

9J.R.
Smith

-0.60


Transition	52
Isolation	28
P&R, ball handler	1
P&R, roll man	1
Post-up
Spot up	41
Handoff	6
Cut
Off screen	84
Putbacks
Misc.	74

10Tristan
Thompson

-1.52


Transition	73
Isolation
P&R, ball handler
P&R, roll man	79
Post-up
Spot up
Handoff
Cut	33
Off screen
Putbacks	43
Misc.	41

Defensive RPM
▼

Def. percentiles
▼

1Draymond
Green

5.12


Transition
Isolation	72
P&R, ball handler	82
P&R, roll man	86
Post-up	82
Spot up	89
Handoff	51
Cut
Off screen	69
Putbacks
Misc.

2Zaza
Pachulia

3.68


Transition
Isolation	23
P&R, ball handler	54
P&R, roll man	18
Post-up	42
Spot up	79
Handoff
Cut
Off screen	14
Putbacks
Misc.

3Kevin
Love

2.01


Transition
Isolation	46
P&R, ball handler	55
P&R, roll man	28
Post-up	64
Spot up	79
Handoff	69
Cut
Off screen	48
Putbacks
Misc.

4 LeBron
James

1.69


Transition
Isolation	52
P&R, ball handler	66
P&R, roll man	76
Post-up	84
Spot up	93
Handoff	26
Cut
Off screen	72
Putbacks
Misc.

5Tristan
Thompson

1.65


Transition
Isolation	68
P&R, ball handler	27
P&R, roll man	62
Post-up	56
Spot up	67
Handoff	15
Cut
Off screen	17
Putbacks
Misc.

6Kevin
Durant

1.19


Transition
Isolation	78
P&R, ball handler	50
P&R, roll man	89
Post-up	64
Spot up	89
Handoff	26
Cut
Off screen	59
Putbacks
Misc.

7Stephen
Curry

0.42


Transition
Isolation	50
P&R, ball handler	38
P&R, roll man	67
Post-up	81
Spot up	59
Handoff	87
Cut
Off screen	42
Putbacks
Misc.

8Klay
Thompson

-0.44


Transition
Isolation	34
P&R, ball handler	59
P&R, roll man	1
Post-up	77
Spot up	80
Handoff	70
Cut
Off screen	74
Putbacks
Misc.

9J.R.
Smith

-0.91


Transition
Isolation	51
P&R, ball handler	25
P&R, roll man
Post-up	0
Spot up	86
Handoff	11
Cut
Off screen	19
Putbacks
Misc.

10Kyrie
Irving

-2.24


Transition
Isolation	12
P&R, ball handler	19
P&R, roll man	20
Post-up	62
Spot up	18
Handoff	14
Cut
Off screen	89
Putbacks
Misc.

Any way you slice it, LeBron James has played absurdly well in the playoffs: 32.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game, not to mention a 30.4 player efficiency rating, 126 offensive rating and .299 Win Shares per 48 minutes (last postseason, he was at .274). Using the Game Score metric, with which 10 is average and 30 is very good, James has ratcheted up the production in a big way -- his playoff rate of games with a 30-plus Game Score eclipses Russell Westbrook's from this season.

For the Warriors' defense, everything starts and ends with the versatility and excellence of Draymond Green. His success with controlling traffic and slowing LeBron James are crucial for the Warriors. Comparing all starters' Defensive Win Shares per 48 minutes to the stellar number for Rudy Gobert (the DWS leader this season), it's clear that Green is operating on another level.

Field goal percentage for the Cavaliers on plays after timeouts, best in the NBA and better than the team's overall percentage of 47 percent. Their PPP (1.01) on such plays are second, behind only Houston (1.017). Golden State is fifth in points per play following timeouts (0.963) and tied for second in field goal percentage (46.9 percent, worse than their overall mark of 49.5 percent).

The teams are miles apart when comparing points per play against play frequency for various plays. Golden State is all about fast breaks (a league-high 18.5 percent are in transition). Cleveland thrives on isolation, averaging 0.99 points per play while running isolation plays a league-high 11.9 percent of the time. The Warriors screen you to death (13 percent of plays, compared to 5.2 for Cleveland).

Stephen Curry endured three losing seasons after being drafted in 2009, but the Warriors grew into a destination for veterans seeking a ring (Durant, West, Pachulia). Irving and Tristan Thompson also suffered three sub-.500 seasons before James returned in 2014 and a handful of trades (Love, Smith, Frye) reconfigured the roster. Here's how each current roster was built:

The teams met twice this season, with each winning in a different fashion. In the Christmas Day matchup, Cleveland had a 3.4 percent win probability with 8:17 left (trailing 95-82) and 5.9 percent with 46 seconds left. But Kyrie Irving hit a fadeaway jumper with 3.4 seconds on the clock to cap the comeback. In the second meeting, Golden State's WP never dipped below 98.4 percent the entire second half in a 35-point rout. The Warriors hit 15 3-pointers and outrebounded the Cavs 58-35.

The teams are more evenly matched than you might think offensively -- all their teams' ranks in Dean Oliver's Four Factors are no more than two spots from each other (they rank 1-2 in effective FG pct.). In terms of weaknesses, the Warriors are 29th in defensive rebounding (74.9%, league average is 76.7) and the Cavs are 29th in defensive turnover percentage (11.4%, average is 12.7).

A deep analytics dive into the Warriors-Cavaliers rematch

They're a combined 24-1 in the playoffs. Their rosters include 11 players who have appeared in an All-Star Game. They've been on a collision course to a third straight NBA Finals. Who has the edge: the Warriors or Cavaliers? Let's look at the numbers.

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