Matt FortunaJared Shanker 9y

FSU vs. Louisville: Three reasons why each team wins

The last time Florida State and Louisville played, the game was at Louisville and on a Thursday night.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

Louisville won that 2002 game, which of course will have no bearing when the No. 2 Seminoles visit the Cardinals this coming Thursday (7:30 ET, ESPN). Louisville (6-2, 4-2 ACC), however, may be the toughest remaining regular-season test for FSU (7-0, 4-0).

Matt Fortuna offers three reasons why Louisville will beat Florida State, while Jared Shanker provides three reasons why the Seminoles will remain unblemished and on track to earn one of the four College Football Playoff bids.

Fortuna’s three reasons Louisville wins: 

1. This is an ideal matchup for Louisville’s defense.

The Cardinals have probably the nation’s top defense. Just look at the numbers: No. 1 in total defense (245.8 ypg), No. 1 in raw and adjusted Total QBR (12.5/14.7), No. 1 against the run (2.31 ypc), No. 1 in first downs (13 pg) and No. 1 in red zone efficiency (30 percent). They are also No. 2 in yards per play (3.91), No. 2 in third-down conversion rate (24 percent), No. 4 in scoring average (14.6) and No. 5 in sacks (28). Lorenzo Mauldin (six sacks) and Sheldon Rankins (five) are among the ACC’s sack leaders. Three other Louisville players have at least three sacks. Gerod Holliman is tied for the nation’s lead in interceptions (eight). This defense is flat-out lethal, and moving the ball against Louisville will be no easy chore for Jameis Winston & Co.

2. The offense is coming together at the right time

No one is going to mistake this unit for Florida State’s, or for vintage Bobby Petrino offenses, for that matter. Still, Will Gardner is back healthy under center. More importantly, he has a quarterback’s best friend back in receiver DeVante Parker, who returned in Louisville’s last outing. All he did was haul in nine catches for 132 yards in his season debut, stretching the field and opening up the offense for a Cardinals unit that was in desperate need of some spice. The 6-foot-3, 208-pound Parker is, simply put, a freak. He will test an FSU secondary that has been -- let’s face it -- not all that it was cracked up to be coming into the season, ranking 62nd nationally against the pass. What’s more, running back Michael Dyer appears to have finally hit his stride when given the opportunity. Dyer broke out for 173 rushing yards and a touchdown last week against NC State. Together, Dyer and Parker make Louisville’s offense much more lethal than its season numbers indicate (30.9 ppg, 370.4 ypg).

3. Home atmosphere

Coaches and players can talk about it being just another game, but those of us outside that bubble don’t have to kid ourselves. This is a Thursday night home game, when the city is rocking. This is a chance to end the nation’s longest-active winning streak (23), and to ruin FSU’s chances at a repeat national championship. This is 12 years after Louisville upset the No. 4 Seminoles at home on a Thursday night. Sure, different players and coaches are on each sideline now, but we’ve seen the air thin around programs the more they hear about unfavorable history. Sure, no one has blocked out the noise while on the field better than the Noles have the past two years, but sooner or later the checks they had written for all of those recent close calls have to be cashed. (You don't break out fancy new uniforms for regular games, either.)

Shanker’s three reasons FSU wins:

1. The FSU offense will get its points

Louisville has the conference’s best defense and very well might have the best unit in the country. This is probably the best defense the Seminoles will face before the playoff. That doesn’t mean the Cardinals will be able to stop them, though. Winston has never been held to below 30 points, and the Seminoles should make a run at 30 again at Louisville. Although the offense has looked out of sync at times, the passing offense has been able to pick up yards in chunks and make the big plays when needed. The rushing attack can be best described as anemic, but it can push the ball into the end zone near the goal line. If Louisville is going to win, history suggests it will need to score in the 30s.

2. Louisville’s offense likely can’t score in the 30s

At least not without the help of an opportunistic defense that can give the Cards’ offense short fields with which to work. Gardner has been reinserted into the starting lineup, but the sophomore quarterback has taken his lumps this season. He is completing only 57 percent of his passes, and, while he’s thrown 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions, he’s had turnover issues. That’s thanks in large part to an offensive line that can’t protect its quarterback. Both teams are among the best in the country at scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but both are among the best at preventing teams from doing the same.

3. Nobody can beat Winston

Even though it looks now like Winston could've lost four of his last seven games, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has pulled out the win each time. Until a team actually beats him, it’s not a smart move betting against him. He made all the right plays in the national championship, had a remarkable touchdown run and throw against Oklahoma State, and operated second-half comebacks against NC State and Notre Dame. Colleague David Hale had this remarkable stat on Winston last week: When tied or trailing, Winston is 144-of-199 passing (72 percent) for 1,860 yards (9.3 yards per attempt), 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. The 2013 Florida State team was among the most dominant in college football history, but in 2014 it has often been the Jameis Winston Show. And every new installment always ends the same.

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