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Matchup: Bumgarner versus Shields

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Jerry Crasnick previews Game 1 of the World Series here, Jonah Keri and Ben Lindbergh of Grantland have five keys for each team here and Buster Olney writes about the importance of Madison Bumgarner holding on Royals baserunners here (basestealers were just 7-for-17 against Bumgarner this season, as he's worked to improve in that area).

I wanted to add a few words on the Bumgarner-James Shields matchup.

An obvious advantage for Bumgarner is that he's left-handed. Seven of the eight home runs the Royals have hit in the postseason have come from left-handed batters: Mike Moustakas (4), Eric Hosmer (2) and Alex Gordon (1). Right-handed hitting Alcides Escobar smacked the other one. Left-handed batters have hit a meager .221/.249/.296 against Bumgarner during the season with just two home runs -- one in the regular season and one by Matt Adams in the NLCS.

Bumgarner works off his fastball -- he throws it 54 percent of the time against left-handed batters -- and if Moustakas, Hosmer and Gordon are to do any damage against the fastball, they'll have to look up in the zone:

You can see why Bumgarner is tough on lefties, considering most lefties like the ball down in the zone. Here are the ratio of home runs hit in the bottom of the zone from these three:

Moustakas: 15-of-19

Hosmer: 8-of-11

Gordon: 8-of-20

So Gordon is the high-ball hitter here. However, 19 of his 20 home runs were pulled to the right of center field with the 20th just barely to the left of center. Considering Bumgarner works that fastball up and away, Gordon will have difficulty doing much against that pitch. Both home runs by lefties against Bumgarner came against his curveball, but he doesn't throw that pitch as often as his fastball or slider.

With the lefties unlikely to do much damage, the Royals' right-handed batters will have to get on base. Against the Cardinals, Bumgarner pounded right-handers inside:

Lorenzo Cain was the Royals' best righty hitter against inside pitches from lefties, hitting .286/.355/.482. Salvador Perez has hit just .195 against such pitches and Billy Butler .191, so look for Bumgarner to continue attacking inside.

As for Shields, he's known for his great changeup, but you still have to look for the fastball.

"You have it in the back of your mind that it's there," Giants first baseman Brandon Belt said on Monday. "But he's still a power pitcher, so you have to work off his fastball. He has other good pitches, so you can't sit on anything."

The Giants will send up six left-handed batters against Shields. Check out his fastball location against left-handed batters:

Lefties have done some damage against that pitch, hitting .271/.347/.453. The key for Shields is keeping the hitters guessing with his four-pitch arsenal. He throws his fastball 40 percent of the time against lefties and his changeup 25 percent of the time, but as Belt alluded to, Shields also has a cutter and a curveball. Still, Shields' fastball generally sets up his off-speed stuff, so look for the Giants hitters to be aggressive against the fastball early in the count and try to avoid those two-strike counts where Shields can throw his changeup.