SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- In the immediate moments after the NFL draft, the safest bet to make is that you will be inundated with immediate grades and reactions to what every team has done. You'll hear words like bust potential, upside, value and reach. None of it will mean much in the grand scheme of things because nobody really knows what any of the players selected will do at the NFL level.
But that doesn't mean it's impossible to look at a team's draft after it's over, nod your head and believe that it did a good job or that it made moves that simply didn't make sense. One of the primary factors in making such a judgment is whether you can see what the team was trying to accomplish. Did it have a plan and was it able to execute that plan? Was that plan a logical one given the coaching staff and systems in place?
Those are things that can be taken at face value regardless of whether the players taken to enact that plan pan out or not. So with those major caveats out of the way, let's lay out a path to success for San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan in their first draft together, starting with the first round. We'll limit today's exercise to the first round while acknowledging that any additional value picked up on Days 2 and 3 is a welcome bonus. After all, a team like the Seattle Seahawks has made a living off finding valuable contributors in the draft's final rounds.
ROUND ONE
49ers pick: No. 2 overall
Ideal scenario: There are two ways this round would automatically get glowing reviews.
The first would be for the Cleveland Browns to somehow opt not to select Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett with the first pick (or any situation in which Garrett doesn't go No. 1). Garrett brings the star power the Niners so desperately need and would be the ideal fit for the team's right defensive end ("Leo" position) spot. He's the closest thing this draft has to a sure thing and the Niners would presumably run to the podium if he's available when they pick.
The other way things could pan out in their favor is for the Niners to find a trade down partner willing to surrender valuable picks in the second round or even a first-round choice next year. Picking up extra picks while moving down a handful of spots, even down into the 10-14 range, would allow the Niners to find a player of comparable value to whoever they might get with the second pick if Garrett is gone. This is a team with needs everywhere and the more good players they can acquire in a deep draft would be a great place to begin.
Sensible alternatives: It's not out of the realm of possibility the Browns will mess things up and take someone like quarterback Mitchell Trubisky at No. 1, but it still seems unlikely. And trade partners are hard to find in a draft with no obvious franchise quarterback options. A trade is probably more likely than Garrett sliding to No. 2.
If neither of those things happen, the Niners will have to sit and make a pick at No. 2. There's no clear cut answer for the right player to pick but there are a handful of options that make sense for them. Safeties Malik Hooker (Ohio State) and Jamal Adams (LSU), Ohio State cornerback Marshon Lattimore and Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas would all be good fits for the culture the Niners are trying to build and could contribute right away.
Of that group, Thomas has been most connected to the 49ers, but he's also the hardest to project as a fit because he's best suited to play left defensive end or three-technique defensive tackle, the two spots occupied by players the Niners have drafted in the first round the past two years. But Thomas has the intangibles any team would want and can help against the run where the Niners were worst in the NFL a year ago.
Hooker would be an excellent fit as the team's single-high safety in coordinator Robert Saleh's scheme and Adams could also play there while providing a higher floor but a lower ceiling. Lattimore is the draft's best corner and has the potential to develop into the Richard Sherman-type of shutdown corner that can make Saleh's scheme work. As a bonus for taking Hooker, Adams or Lattimore, the Niners can roll with Jimmie Ward at safety or cornerback, thus allowing them more flexibility to not have to double down on defensive backs in the early parts of the draft.
As for going offense in the first round, we can't rule it out, especially given the needs for a franchise quarterback and a top receiver, but it's hard to see how the value of the player will match up with the second overall pick, which, once again, is why a trade down would open up a wider variety of possibilities.