How do we value immediate results from this first week in the NBA? Recency bias is difficult to fight in all fantasy sports, so we should apply some cross-sport context to better understand how scant the current sample in the NBA proves. Each game in the NBA represents a 1.2 percent slice of the 82-game season. For some context, just one quarter of an NFL game represents 1.5 percent of the regular season.
If Le'Veon Bell has a bad quarter in Cleveland to open the season, it shouldn't -- and really doesn't -- shift his market value. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker struggled in a historic loss against Portland to open the season, and I believe we should similarly appraise this result as if it were 15 minutes of football in September. Which is to say, I don't think we should revise valuations on proven players for at least several more games.
I'm more willing, however, to be swayed by early success for players who don't have an established statistical resume. We know Bledsoe and Booker can provide positive production over enduring stretches, so they've earned a degree of deference and stability.
With a player like Larry Nance Jr., he of 30 career starts in 127 games, I'm more willing to change my perspective if there is a significant shift in opportunity in place. Julius Randle started 73 of his 74 games last season, but it was Nance earning the start at power forward for the Lakers after wresting the gig from Randle late in the preseason.
The Lakers clearly want to run, as they already rank third in the league with 109.9 possessions per 48 minutes, which could lead to Nance earning enduring exposure as the rim-runner and glue guy on the glass aside Brook Lopez.
I was high on Randle heading into the season, but mostly based on the rich opportunity rates awaiting him on the Lakers' aforementioned fantasy-friendly offense. So, in just 1.2 percent of the season, Nance appears to be rising like his dad in a dunk contest. Last season, in his second campaign, Nance posted 11.2 points, 9.2 boards, 1.0 block and an elite 2 steals per game per each 36 minutes played. If the athletic forward can continue to keep Randle deeper in the rotation, there is top-100 potential present.
The ascension of young players enjoying awesome starts to the season, such as Boston's Jaylen Brown, Nance and Dejounte Murray will be riveting to watch as the sample for this season matures.
I always try to keep at least one fluid spot on my rosters for early-season prospecting, as there is always a wave of improved players earning increased exposure that we simply missed when sifting through offseason narratives and preseason data for sleepers. This seems like a fairly silly thing to suggest, but I think one of the quickest and easy ways to approach free agency right now is to sort by most added. This lets you quickly assess how the market is reacting to these early-season samples. Let's see what the other 98.8 percent of the season reveals.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Schedule and ratings
The earlier start to the NBA season fosters a more balanced schedule this season, so we'll see almost every team oscillate between three and four games each week. Last season's more condensed schedule saw seven occurrences of a team playing five games in a given weekly stretch (running from Monday to Sunday), while there is just one such five-game week this season (the Kings play a full five shortly after the All-Star break in early March).
In some sense, I'll miss the gamesmanship of grinding out extra games amid weeks that had wider variance in games played, but we should also welcome this newfound balance, given the premium it places on efficiency of production, rather than gaining leverage with sheer games played or minutes tallied. This said, you should still always seek to get extra games out of your roster when possible, like targeting streaming options who play two games over the course of the weekend, for example.
I'd also advise we continue to temper the impact and influence of the ratings in the schedule table, as we're clearly dealing with an immature set of statistics this early into the season. In the weeks ahead, however, I think we should start affording matchup metrics and trends more credence as the numbers being to stabilize.
Pointless in Denver?
It appears the Denver Nuggets don't have a featured point guard at the moment. We know Emmanuel Mudiay's frustrating shot selection, lack of scoring efficiency and turnover rate could keep him from earning the role. Jamal Murray earned a good deal of preseason buzz, given the unclaimed starting gig heading into the season, but he played just 20 minutes despite not battling injury or foul trouble, while also having the best plus/minus rating on the Nuggets in the opener in Utah. Maybe Murray is the guy to roster and we should ring the 1.2 percent sample alarm. I think the move is to add Will Barton across all formats, as he could benefit from the team experimenting with Gary Harris, Murray and him as a three-man combo guard approach to the position. Of the three, Barton is the most willing shooter and playmaker in regards to usage rate evidence.
As a talented scorer afforded a rising usage rate on what is one of the league's most promising offenses, I think there is a good chance Barton is more valuable as a fantasy commodity this season than Murray on the Player Rater, given his propensity to take over driving duties on a team that needs more initiation from the perimeter. Available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues, Barton might be the key beneficiary of Denver's lack of a pure point guard solution.
Nerlens now
It's time to add Nerlens Noel in your fantasy league. Like right now. Is he always going to shoot perfectly from the field and the stripe like he did in his wildly efficient season debut? No, he's not. But Noel will flirt with a field goal clip around 60 percent (mostly dunks) and most importantly deliver one of the greatest blends of blocks and steals in the league. The 19 minutes Noel played proves limiting, but I find it hard to believe his rim protection and speed for small-ball lineups won't earn him more exposure.
Booker in Brooklyn
The Nets run an awesome offensive scheme in terms of pace and opportunity rates for fantasy purposes. Enter Trevor Booker, the resident glue guy for the Nets who should feast on rebounding chances this season. We already saw Booker provide a high fantasy floor last season, while I think we might find an even better haul off the glass this season, given the lack of competition on the roster's uniquely thin frontcourt.