CHICAGO -- Trading for Tony Romo would push the Chicago Bears closer to seven or eight victories -- but not to winning a championship.
Unless a quarterback-needy franchise is Super Bowl-ready (Denver?), Romo's nothing more than a $14 million bridge quarterback in 2017. If the Bears finally develop into a perennial playoff-caliber team in three seasons -- a big if -- Romo is unlikely to still be around.
Not for a lack of talent, however.
"What you saw that veteran quarterback do in Aaron Rodgers out there [in the Green Bay Packers' NFC divisional playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys], Romo is capable of doing," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told 105.3 The Fan in Dallas.
Jones is surely biased when it comes to Romo because of their close relationship, but the comparison to Rodgers is somewhat reasonable.
Romo, who turns 37 in April, passed for 3,705 yards and 34 touchdowns with nine interceptions (113.2 quarterback rating) for the Cowboys in 2014. Since he entered the league in 2003 as an undrafted free agent out of Eastern Illinois, Romo's career passer rating is 97.1. He's made four Pro Bowls. The guy can flat-out play. Romo also has developed the reputation as a positive influence inside the locker room. There are no chemistry or character concerns here.
The major red flag is durability. That cannot be overlooked by the Bears, who are the third-best bet to land Romo, according to one betting site.
Since Romo's brilliant 2014 season, he's appeared in just five games. Romo did not make a start in 2016 after a preseason back fracture led to the rise of rookie Dak Prescott, and the odds of Romo reclaiming the job are remote -- barring an injury to Prescott.
The three years remaining on Romo's contract call for him to earn base salaries of $14 million in 2017, $19.5 million in 2018 and $20.5 million in 2019. Remember, only a player's base salary follows him in a trade. The Cowboys would be on the hook for the remaining $19.5 million of Romo's prorated signing bonus, which would accelerate onto their 2017 salary cap if he is moved.
None of the money left on Romo's deal is guaranteed, but if the Bears were to trade a draft pick to Dallas, then Romo is assured of a roster spot in '17.
So look at it as a one-year commitment. Is $14 million too much for an older quarterback with a recent history of serious injuries?
One could argue the $14 million that would be earmarked for Romo can be used on numerous other free agents since the Bears have so many obvious roster needs. Of course, there is no greater need in Chicago than quarterback, but if the Bears are resigned to using a bridge guy until the quarterback they draft (presumably) is ready to start -- Brian Hoyer is a lot cheaper than Romo. So is Matt Barkley. So is Connor Shaw.
Romo is infinitely better than all three, but he can only do so much. The Cowboys' offensive line isn't moving to Lake Forest. Dez Bryant is staying in Dallas. So is Ezekiel Elliott.
Are the Bears better off finishing 8-8 with Romo? Or, is the better play spending that money on younger parts that may be here three years down the road?
The unfortunate part of the offseason for the Bears is that no perfect solution exists at quarterback. The closest to a sure thing may be acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots, although that too is fraught with risk. Garoppolo is only 25, but he's made just two career starts. Plus, the compensation to pry him away from the Patriots is expected to be steep, and then you'd have to pay him long term on top of it.
Drafting a quarterback remains a top priority, but in a below-average quarterback class, there is a strong likelihood the player chosen by the Bears will not be ready to start in 2017.
Romo is an upgrade -- no doubt about it -- but the Bears need to think long term, not short term.