 Congratulations, Arizona. I'm ranking you as my No. 1 team in the nation even though, purely for good and substantial off-the-court reasons, history might mark my selection as an exercise in folly. We don't know what the near future will bring for Sean Miller and the Wildcats off the court, only that whatever happens there will determine everything that transpires in the future on the court in Tucson. For Arizona as indeed for college basketball as a whole, this is a period of uncertainty the likes of which we have rarely seen in the sport. Be that as it may, on paper the Wildcats do strike me as the best approximation we have this season of past national champions like Kentucky in 2011-12 and Duke in 2014-15. Those teams blended returning experience with multiple one-and-done freshmen on their way to confetti-filled first Monday nights in April. Arizona might not turn out to have multiple one-and-done freshmen, but Miller does have a projected top-four pick in Deandre Ayton and a potent cadre of veterans led by Allonzo Trier, a preseason first-team ESPN All-American. This team does not lack for talent. Then again, that's not the only path to winning a national title. Think for a moment about what we've seen the past two years from North Carolina and Villanova, respectively. The Tar Heels and the Wildcats won their titles by being older. Roy Williams started three juniors and two seniors, while, in the 2016 tournament, Jay Wright put two seniors, two juniors and a lone non-one-and-done freshman (Jalen Brunson) on the floor for the opening tip. Those were veteran teams whose key contributors had logged a high number of minutes together. Kind of like Wichita State this season. The Shockers have all five starters back (or will, when they get healthy) from a team that went 31-5 in 2016-17. Doubt the schedule that Gregg Marshall's team played last season if you wish, but also remember that said schedule included Kentucky in the round of 32. That game came down to the 40th minute. Below Arizona and Wichita State, you'll find plenty of teams way younger than the Wildcats (such as those other Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky) and even a few rosters with more returning experience than the Shockers (I see you, USC). Before we dive in to all 351 teams, though, here are answers to a few questions that tend to be raised by this 1-to-351 business ... How are these rankings created?
Halfway between a pure rating system and a pollster's (greatly) expanded top-25 ballot, you'll encounter something like these rankings. They're the product of a lively and occasionally contentious conversation between yours truly and my laptop. I start by rounding up the usual modeling suspects, namely, how good was the team last season and who's back from that roster. I make due allowance, where applicable, for sensational incoming freshmen. Lastly, I tweak as I see fit, allowing for things like transfers, aberrantly good or bad 3-point luck on offense or defense last season, coaching changes, etc. Speaking of who's back from last season ... What does "%RPMs" mean?
This is the percentage of possession-minutes that a roster returns from last season. For example, Bradley is bringing back every player that averaged at least four minutes a game last season, so the Braves' figure there is 100 percent. At the other extreme, not surprisingly, is Kentucky, which returns just 7 percent of last season's possession-minutes. This is a statistical way of saying simply, "Wenyen Gabriel is back, and everyone else is gone." Here's a forecasting rule of thumb for the vast majority of programs that aren't blessed with sensational incoming freshmen and/or a sensational transfer. The D-I average for returning possession-minutes this season is 56 percent, and the shape of that particular bell curve means any figure below 37 or above 75 percent is statistically extreme. Couch expectations accordingly. Why is Kentucky so low?
I'm not convinced top 10 is really so low, but see above: UK is the youngest team in the nation. While we think that John Calipari always has young teams (and he kind of does), this Wildcats roster is green even by Cal's standards. Besides, during the current coach's tenure, UK's NCAA tournament seeds have correlated quite well with returning experience -- with the single and outstanding exception of last season. De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk & Co. were young (RPMs: 26 percent), but they won an SEC regular-season title outright, earned a No. 2 seed and came within a Luke Maye game-winner of going into overtime with a Final Four berth on the line. Along with Kansas in 2013-14, Kentucky last season set the standard, so far, for how good a team that young can be. But, again, this season's Wildcats roster is significantly younger than what we saw in Lexington in 2016-17. Now, with all possible questions answered (right?), here are my rankings for 2017-18. Enjoy. 1. Arizona Wildcats | RPM% 49
2. Wichita State Shockers | RPM% 93
3. Duke Blue Devils | RPM% 19
4. Michigan State Spartans | RPM% 77
5. Villanova Wildcats | RPM% 53
6. West Virginia Mountaineers | RPM% 53
7. Cincinnati Bearcats | RPM% 73
8. Kansas Jayhawks | RPM% 37
9. Kentucky Wildcats | RPM% 7
10. North Carolina Tar Heels | RPM% 38
11. USC Trojans | RPM% 98
12. Purdue Boilermakers | RPM% 72
13. Virginia Cavaliers | RPM% 51
14. Northwestern Wildcats | RPM% 88
15. Florida Gators | RPM% 48
16. TCU Horned Frogs | RPM% 82
17. Gonzaga Bulldogs | RPM% 38
18. Xavier Musketeers | RPM% 69
19. Texas A&M Aggies | RPM% 83
20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish | RPM% 61
21. Saint Mary's Gaels | RPM% 72
22. Louisville Cardinals | RPM% 53
23. Michigan Wolverines | RPM% 40
24. Seton Hall Pirates | RPM% 89
25. Baylor Bears | RPM% 53 26. Minnesota Golden Gophers | RPM% 81
27. Alabama Crimson Tide | RPM% 73
28. Texas Longhorns | RPM% 56
29. Providence Friars | RPM% 96
30. Miami Hurricanes | RPM% 69
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders | RPM% 60
32. Butler Bulldogs | RPM% 54
33. Oklahoma Sooners | RPM% 65
34. UCLA Bruins | RPM% 30
35. Auburn Tigers | RPM% 69
36. Marquette Golden Eagles 51
37. SMU Mustangs | RPM% 39
38. Maryland Terrapins | RPM% 59
39. Oklahoma State Cowboys | RPM% 53
40. South Carolina Gamecocks | RPM% 29
41. Kansas State Wildcats | RPM% 59
42. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | RPM% 69
43. Wisconsin Badgers | RPM% 40
44. Creighton Bluejays | RPM% 57
45. Oregon Ducks | RPM% 15
46. Rhode Island Rams | RPM% 72
47. San Diego State Aztecs | RPM% 54
48. Iowa State Cyclones | RPM% 18
49. Tennessee Volunteers | RPM% 63
50. Iowa Hawkeyes | RPM% 80 51. Wake Forest Demon Deacons | RPM% 58
52. Virginia Tech Hokies | RPM%58
53. Indiana Hoosiers | RPM% 63
54. Stanford Cardinal | RPM% 75
55. Utah Utes | RPM% 46
56. Clemson Tigers | RPM% 56
57. Georgia Bulldogs | RPM% 72
58. Florida State Seminoles | RPM% 41
59. Ole Miss Rebels | RPM% 61
60. Temple Owls | RPM% 71
61. Vanderbilt Commodores | RPM% 72
62. Penn State Nittany Lions | RPM% 82
63. St. John's Red Storm | RPM% 72
64. UConn Huskies | RPM% 36
65. Arkansas Razorbacks | RPM% 61
66. Oregon State Beavers | RPM% 96
67. Charleston Cougars | RPM% 96
68. St. Bonaventure Bonnies | RPM% 73
69. Mississippi State Bulldogs | RPM% 75
70. Houston Cougars | RPM% 63
71. Missouri Tigers | RPM% 65
72. UCF Knights | RPM% 59
73. Saint Joseph's Hawks | RPM% 88
74. Vermont Catamounts | RPM% 71
75. Bucknell Bison | RPM% 92 76. Princeton Tigers | RPM% 54
77. Syracuse Orange | RPM% 23
78. Boise State Broncos | RPM% 58
79. Tulsa Golden Hurricane | RPM% 74
80. Yale Bulldogs | RPM% 70
81. VCU Rams | RPM% 31
82. Nevada Wolf Pack | RPM% 37
83. Ohio State Buckeyes | RPM% 53
84. Davidson Wildcats | RPM% 71
85. Harvard Crimson | RPM% 71
86. Illinois Fighting Illini | RPM% 33
87. BYU Cougars | RPM% 57
88. LSU Tigers | RPM% 59
89. Fresno State Bulldogs | RPM% 67
90. UT Arlington Mavericks | RPM% 61
91. Nebraska Cornhuskers | RPM% 50
92. Georgetown Hoyas | RPM% 40
93. Arizona State Sun Devils | RPM% 56
94. Oakland Golden Grizzlies | RPM% 67
95. Colorado Buffaloes | RPM% 36
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | RPM% 49
97. NC State Wolfpack | RPM% 41
98. Dayton Flyers | RPM% 34
99. Boston College Eagles | RPM% 63
100. California Golden Bears | RPM% 15 101. Missouri State Bears | RPM% 84
102. Wyoming Cowboys | RPM% 70
103. Old Dominion Monarchs | RPM% 66
104. Illinois State Redbirds | RPM% 27
105. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | RPM% 66
106. Loyola (IL) Ramblers | RPM% 69
107. San Francisco Dons | RPM% 81
108. New Mexico State Aggies | RPM% 41
109. Mercer Bears | RPM% 94
110. South Dakota State Jackrabbits | RPM% 72
111. Elon Phoenix | RPM% 84
112. UNC Asheville Bulldogs | RPM% 77
113. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | RPM% 76
114. Washington Huskies | RPM% 69
115. Rutgers Scarlet Knights | RPM% 69
116. Georgia Southern Eagles | RPM% 94
117. Colorado State Rams | RPM% 49
118. DePaul Blue Demons | RPM% 59
119. La Salle Explorers | RPM% 63
120. Albany Great Danes | RPM% 78
121. Samford Bulldogs | RPM% 88
122. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | RPM% 65
123. UNC Wilmington Seahawks | RPM% 31
124. East Tennessee State Buccaneers 40
125. Valparaiso Crusaders | RPM% 45 126. Belmont Bruins | RPM% 52
127. Utah State Aggies | RPM% 64
128. Pittsburgh Panthers | RPM% 8
129. Penn Quakers | RPM% 84
130. Grand Canyon Antelopes | RPM% 65
131. Memphis Tigers | RPM% 23
132. Hofstra Pride | RPM% 52
133. Iona Gaels | RPM% 46
134. Georgia State Panthers | RPM% 55
135. Northern Kentucky Norse | RPM% 83
136. Ball State Cardinals | RPM% 72
137. UAB Blazers | RPM% 46
138. Bradley Braves | RPM% 100
139. Furman Paladins | RPM% 83
140. UNLV Runnin' Rebels | RPM% 51
141. Denver Pioneers | RPM% 79
142. Santa Clara Broncos | RPM% 57
143. Lipscomb Bisons | RPM% 85
144. Towson Tigers | RPM% 70
145. Buffalo Bulls | RPM% 49
146. Northern Iowa Panthers | RPM% 68
147. Western Michigan Broncos | RPM% 80
148. Richmond Spiders | RPM% 47
149. Monmouth Hawks | RPM% 40
150. Troy Trojans | RPM% 68 151. UNC Greensboro Spartans | RPM% 62
152. Northeastern Huskies | RPM% 50
153. Navy Midshipmen | RPM% 86
154. Fort Wayne Mastadons | RPM% 57
155. New Mexico Lobos | RPM% 26
156. Wofford Terriers | RPM% 61
157. Utah Valley Wolverines | RPM% 72
158. Southern Illinois Salukis | RPM% 51
159. South Dakota Coyotes | RPM% 72
160. George Washington Colonials | RPM% 38
161. Murray State Racers | RPM% 60
162. Idaho Vandals | RPM% 87
163. Ohio Bobcats | RPM% 48
164. UIC Flames | RPM% 78
165. UMass Minutemen | RPM%42
166. Eastern Michigan Eagles | RPM% 38
167. Colgate Raiders | RPM% 93
168. Toledo Rockets | RPM% 53
169. Montana Grizzlies | RPM% 61
170. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | RPM% 76
171. UTEP Miners | RPM% 70
172. Jacksonville State Gamecocks | RPM% 64
173. North Dakota State Bison | RPM% 53
174. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners | RPM% 45
175. George Mason Patriots | RPM% 52 176. Evansville Purple Aces | RPM% 42
177. William & Mary Tribe | RPM% 37
178. Montana State Bobcats | RPM% 84
179. Liberty Flames | RPM% 64
180. Saint Louis Billikens | RPM% 59
181. Winthrop Eagles | RPM% 45
182. Saint Peter's Peacocks | RPM% 30
183. Manhattan Jaspers | RPM% 77
184. UC Irvine Anteaters | RPM% 45
185. East Carolina Pirates | RPM% 51
186. UMBC Retrievers | RPM% 75
187. Akron Zips | RPM% 20
188. Lehigh Mountain Hawks | RPM% 44
189. Marshall Thundering Herd | RPM% 44
190. Weber State Wildcats | RPM% 56
191. Niagara Purple Eagles | RPM% 86
192. Eastern Kentucky Colonels | RPM% 73
193. Kent State Golden Flashes | RPM% 56
194. Charlotte 49ers | RPM% 61
195. Army Black Knights | RPM% 79
196. Hawaii Rainbows Warriors | RPM% 73
197. Drexel Dragons | RPM% 69
198. New Hampshire Wildcats | RPM% 61
199. Chattanooga Mocs | RPM% 26
200. San Diego Torreros | RPM% 59 201. Milwaukee Panthers | RPM% 77
202. Southeastern Louisiana Lions | RPM% 65
203. Stony Brook Wolves Seawolves | RPM% 61
204. Air Force Falcons | RPM% 71
205. Eastern Washington Eagles | RPM% 62
206. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs | RPM% 61
207. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | RPM% 51
208. Wright State Raiders | RPM% 48
209. Arkansas State Red Wolves | RPM% 56
210. Indiana State Sycamores | RPM% 46
211. Texas State Bobcats | RPM% 46
212. Tulane Green Wave | RPM% 59
213. Lamar Cardinals | RPM% 75
214. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks | RPM% 68
215. Fordham Rams | RPM% 48
216. Columbia Lions | RPM% 68
217. Fairfield Stags | RPM% 57
218. Eastern Illinois Panthers | RPM% 65
219. Drake Bulldogs | RPM% 86
220. Cornell Big Red | RPM% 71
221. IUPUI Jaguars | RPM% 47
222. Tennessee State Tigers | RPM% 45
223. Campbell Camels | RPM% 89
224. North Dakota Fighting Hawks | RPM% 48
225. Canisius Golden Griffins | RPM% 47 226. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | RPM% 47
227. South Florida Bulls | RPM% 30
228. Radford Highlanders | RPM% 90
229. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash | RPM% 73
230. Washington State Cougars | RPM% 33
231. Boston Terriers | RPM% 50
232. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | RPM% 74
233. Northern Colorado Bears | RPM% 70
234. Northern Illinois Huskies | RPM% 41
235. Appalachian State Mountaineers | RPM% 65
236. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders | RPM% 58
237. Binghamton Bearcats | RPM% 87
238. Duquesne Dukes | RPM% 48
239. Youngstown State Penguins | RPM% 62
240. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | RPM% 19
241. Delaware Blue Hens | RPM% 67
242. Dartmouth Big Green | RPM% 85
243. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds | RPM% 78
244. Incarnate Word Cardinals | RPM% 80
245. Nebraska Omaha Mavericks | RPM% 41
246. Long Beach State 49ers | RPM% 36
247. Siena Saints | RPM% 28
248. Portland State Vikings | RPM% 48
249. Bowling Green Falcons | RPM% 50
250. Loyola Marymount Lions | RPM% 26 251. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | RPM% 43
252. UC Davis Aggies | RPM% 43
253. Abilene Christian Wildcats | RPM% 93
254. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | RPM% 63
255. Sam Houston State Bearkats | RPM% 49
256. Pacific Tigers | RPM% 31
257. James Madison Dukes | RPM% 24
258. San Jose State Spartans | RPM% 42
259. Green Bay Phoenix | RPM% 18
260. Umass Lowell River Hawks | RPM% 71
261. Rider Broncs | RPM% 26
262. USC Upstate Spartans | RPM% 58
263. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | RPM% 43
264. Citadel Bulldogs | RPM% 43
265. UTSA Roadrunners | RPM% 52
266. High Point Panthers | RPM% 51
267. Cleveland State Vikings | RPM% 53
268. Texas Southern Tigers | RPM% 37
269. Holy Cross Crusaders | RPM% 36
270. UT Rio Grande Vaqueros | RPM% 69
271. Detroit Mercy Titans | RPM% 74
272. Morehead State Eagles | RPM% 22
273. Central Michigan Chippewas | RPM% 37
274. Western Carolina Catamounts | RPM% 85
275. UC Riverside Highlanders | RPM% 61 276. Charleston Southern Buccaneers | RPM% 59
277. Brown Bears | RPM% 50
278. Little Rock Trojans | RPM% 25
279. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | RPM% 37
280. North Florida Ospreys | RPM% 29
281. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds | RPM% 41
282. UT Martin Skyhawks | RPM% 32
283. Miami (OH) Redhawks | RPM% 55
284. Lafayette Leopards | RPM% 81
285. Cal State Fullerton Titans | RPM% 52
286. Sacred Heart Pioneers | RPM% 61
287. Sacramento State Hornets | RPM% 62
288. Norfolk State Spartans | RPM% 50
289. American Eagles | RPM% 54
290. Cal Poly Mustangs | RPM% 58
291. UMKC Kangaroos | RPM% 28
292. Wagner Seahawks | RPM% 39
293. Kennesaw State Owls | RPM% 51
294. Seattle Redhawks | RPM% 35
295. South Alabama Jaguars | RPM% 34
296. Florida Atlantic Owls | RPM% 46
297. Marist Red Foxes | RPM% 70
298. Bryant Bulldogs | RPM% 57
299. Rice Owls | RPM% 18
300. Morgan State Bears | RPM% 81 301. Stetson Hatters | RPM% 72
302. New Orleans Privateers | RPM% 37
303. Hampton Pirates | RPM% 81
304. Houston Baptist Huskies | RPM% 32
305. Central Arkansas Bears | RPM% 70
306. McNeese State Cowboys | RPM% 71
307. Hartford Hawks | RPM% 73
308. NJIT Highlanders | RPM% 47
309. Idaho State Bengals | RPM% 59
310. Alcorn State Braves | RPM% 58
311. Northwestern State Demons | RPM% 45
312. Southern Miss Golden Eagles | RPM% 47
313. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks | RPM% 56
314. Western Illinois Leathernecks | RPM% 51
315. Jacksonville Dolphins | RPM% 33
316. Savannah State Tigers | RPM% 60
317. Austin Peay Governors | RPM% 15
318. Robert Morris Colonials | RPM% 23
319. North Carolina Central Eagles | RPM% 7
320. Portland Pilots | RPM% 26
321. Pepperdine Waves | RPM% 25
322. North Texas Mean Green | RPM% 44
323. SIU-Edwardsville Cougars | RPM% 49
324. Quinnipiac Bobcats | RPM% 30
325. Prairie View A&M Panthers | RPM% 42 326. CSU Northridge Matadors | RPM% 30
327. Florida A&M Rattlers | RPM% 82
328. Chicago State Cougars | RPM% 52
329. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | RPM% 32
330. Southern Jaguars | RPM% 51
331. St. Francis (NY) Terriers | RPM% 59
332. Maine Black Bears | RPM% 45
333. Nicholls State Colonels | RPM% 34
334. FIU Panthers | RPM% 18
335. Bethune Cookman Wildcats | RPM% 41
336. Presbyterian Blue Hose | RPM% 60
337. VMI Keydets | RPM% 33
338. Southern Utah Thunderbirds | RPM% 40
339. Central Connecticut Blue Devils | RPM% 54
340. Coppin State Eagles | RPM% 38
341. Jackson State Tigers | RPM% 29
342. Longwood Lancers | RPM% 45
343. Alabama State Hornets | RPM% 50
344. Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions | RPM% 65
345. South Carolina State Bulldogs | RPM% 50
346. North Carolina A&T Aggies | RPM% 45
347. Delaware State Hornets | RPM% 40
348. Alabama A&M Bulldogs | RPM% 55
349. Howard Bison | RPM% 28
350. Grambling Tigers | RPM% 28
351. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils | RPM% 10
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