The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals had been pegged as Super Bowl contenders. The Baltimore Ravens had hopes of returning to the playoffs. The Cleveland Browns had begun a new chapter with another new coach.
As the NFL season nears the halfway point, the once strong AFC North is showing some cracks. The division has gone from the class of the NFL to one of the most disappointing collections of teams in the league.
The previous eight seasons, the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals combined for two Super Bowl titles, five AFC Championship Games and 17 playoff berths. The division was dominant as recently as 2014, when it sent three teams to the postseason and became the league's first division since 1935 to have all four teams at least two games over .500 at any point in the season.
Now, seven weeks into the 2016-17 season, there's one team with a winning record (the Steelers) and one team that has a shot at being winless (the Browns). The Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) are off to their worst start since 2012, and the Baltimore Ravens (3-4) have lost four in a row for the first time in nine years. The best indication of how much the AFC North has fallen is its 7-15 record (.318) against teams outside its division -- the worst in the NFL.
NFL Nation reporters Jeremy Fowler, Jamison Hensley, Pat McManamon and Katherine Terrell break down what has gone wrong in the AFC North.
1. Why has the division gone from the best to mediocre?
Terrell: For the Steelers, Ravens and Browns, injuries played a part. How many quarterbacks have the Browns gone through? The Bengals have missed red zone targets Tyler Eifert (ankle) and Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Reggie Nelson (free agency). Losing offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to the Browns also seems to have been a big blow, as the Bengals have become one of the worst scoring offenses in the league.
Hensley: What stands out is quarterback play. The Steelers are 0-2 in games in which Ben Roethlisberger has been injured. The Ravens are struggling with Joe Flacco, who has flopped in the final two minutes the past four weeks. The Browns are working on their sixth quarterback. The only exception has been the Bengals, who’ve received good play from Andy Dalton. But he’s still quarterbacking an offense averaging only 20 points per game.
Fowler: The Ravens look to be coming out of a mini-rebuild but aren’t all the way back. That hurts a bit. The division is at its best when Pittsburgh and Baltimore are pulling the best out of each other. Pittsburgh’s rebuilt defense isn’t all the way back, either, plus Ben Roethlisberger is missing extended time for the second consecutive year. Playing Denver, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas in the first six weeks helps explain the Bengals’ struggle.
McManamon: I don't know that it is mediocre. Pittsburgh will struggle without Ben Roethlisberger, the way any team would. But the Steelers have enough talent to still make the playoffs, in which they would threaten anyone. Cincinnati started slow, but the Browns arrived at the right time to let the Bengals straighten themselves out. A win over Washington on Sunday makes Cincinnati .500, and a 6-2 second half is possible. The other two teams? Baltimore was overrated to start the season, and the Browns are simply the Browns. Two quality teams remain.
2. Which team has been the most disappointing?
McManamon: The easy answer is Cincinnati, but the Bengals' losses have come against the Steelers, Patriots, Cowboys and Patriots. Yes, to be a good team, you have to beat good teams, so the Bengals still have to get over that hump. But losing to those teams is more frustrating than shameful. Baltimore has turned a 3-0 start into four losses in a row, including to both New York teams the past two weeks. The Ravens started the season with hopes too high for a team to lose the way it has lost. Quick aside: It says much about expectations when a winless team is not the most disappointing, no?
Hensley: The Bengals. The reigning division champions have faced a tough schedule, but they’ve lost by an average of 13 points in those defeats to the Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots. Their three wins have come against teams with a combined 5-16 record (.230). This is not the start that was expected for a team some thought would reach the Super Bowl.
Fowler: The Bengals. Despite the tough schedule, Cincinnati’s usually stout offensive line started too slowly. A soft decline was reasonable, given the loss of several defensive starters from last season, but the Bengals’ 19th-ranked total defense needs improvement. After averaging 11 wins a season since 2013, Cincinnati serves as a bigger letdown than Baltimore, which bottomed out a year ago.
Terrell: The Bengals. They returned the core of a team that made the playoffs last season and ranked seventh in points per game. This season, the playoffs are in doubt after back-to-back lopsided losses to the Cowboys and Patriots and an offense that has consistently struggled to get in the end zone. This is nowhere near the team that started 2015 with an eight-game win streak.
3. Which team will win the division, and how many teams will make the playoffs?
Fowler: I picked Pittsburgh in the preseason, and I’ll stand by that. The Ravens and Bengals haven’t done enough to change my mind. Plus, Pittsburgh has two Cleveland games coming up. Cincinnati will make a late-season playoff push with Andy Dalton playing turnover-free football and Tyler Eifert poised to complement A.J. Green. The Bengals have crept into the top 10 in rushing and passing offense.
Terrell: This is a little murkier now that Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, but the Steelers should still be the favorite to win the division. The Bengals’ schedule sets up nicely in the second half, so they still have a definite shot to be the second team from the division to make the playoffs. The AFC playoff picture is up in the air enough that the AFC North has a chance to send two teams.
McManamon: Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will make the playoffs. Two teams will make it from the West and one each from the South and East. That leaves two from the North. The Steelers will be back to their old selves when Roethlisberger returns, and I'm not giving up on the Bengals, who showed too much talent against the Browns to be discounted. Baltimore will be the odd team out.
Hensley: The Steelers, and that’s it. Pittsburgh plays only one first-place team the rest of the way. The Steelers’ remaining nine opponents have a 25-27 record (.403). Pittsburgh’s chances of winning the AFC North are at 65.8 percent, according to ESPN Analytics. The Ravens and Bengals make too many mistakes at critical times for me to believe they can rebound and get to a 9-7 or 10-6 mark.