Pat McManamon, ESPN Staff Writer 7y

Analytics says Browns' best chance for a win is Sunday vs. Jets

BEREA, Ohio -- They're not favored, and their chances to win are less than 50-50.

But if the Cleveland Browns are to end their winless season, Sunday would seem to be the game.

ESPN Analytics gives the Browns a 39.3 percent chance to win. That's down from a week ago, but is still the best chance for any of the remaining nine games.

"Well we certainly hope we win this week," left tackle Joe Thomas said. "That's certainly the plan."

It's actually been the plan every week. No team goes into a game planning to lose. But even quarterback Josh McCown admitted that he understands people looking at schedules and figuring what might happen.

"I know it's easy, because I'm a fan of other sports," McCown said. "It's human nature to sit and look at a schedule and say, 'Oh, maybe that one. Oh, this is going to be tough.'"

But he added quickly that players don't look at other teams' records and think about a game differently.

"When you're in it and you're in the locker room, the next game is the one you're focused on and you're focused on winning," McCown said.

"I don't know if we really look too much at records just because the NFL has so much parity," Thomas said. "Even the Browns at 0-and-7 have given a lot of teams really good games so far."

Three of the Browns seven losses have been by six points or fewer.

"It's not like college football when you play a 2-7 team or 2-5 or whatever," Thomas said. "You know you're gonna whup them because there's just such a disparity in talent, scheme and fundamentals."

The Jets' Brandon Marshall agreed.

"Shoot, we're almost winless," he said of the Jets' 2-5 record.

One factor that may help the Browns: McCown appears on track to make his first start since Sept. 18, when he broke his left collarbone in a loss to the Ravens. McCown brings veteran savvy to the position, though he hasn't played in six weeks. His presence makes the Browns more competitive than they presumably would have been with Kevin Hogan or Joe Callahan playing quarterback. Cody Kessler remains in the NFL concussion protocol.

ESPN Analytics reports that there are no games the rest of the season in which the Browns currently have a 40 percent chance to win.

The closest is Sunday against the Jets at 39.3 percent.

Only one game is above a one-in-three chance: Cincinnati at home on Dec. 11 at 35.7 percent.

There are four games between 30 and 33 percent: Dallas at home Nov. 6 at 30.4 percent, Pittsburgh at home Nov. 20 at 30.1 percent, the Giants at home Nov. 27 at 32.5 percent and the Chargers on Christmas Eve in Cleveland at 32.7 percent.

One week ago, the Browns had two games with better than a 40 percent chance to win; this week there are zero.

But one week ago there were four games with better than a 30 percent chance; this week there are six.

ESPN Analytics adds that the Browns' chances to go 0-16 are 5.5 percent, up from 3.7 a week ago. Their chances to make the playoffs, win the division and win out are zero.

But the Browns do have a 69.3-percent chance to secure the first pick in the 2017 draft.

So, there's that.

^ Back to Top ^