Jenna Laine, ESPN Staff Writer 7y

Jameis Winston NFL's top-rated QB under pressure but struggles without it

TAMPA, Fla. -- Only one other quarterback has thrown more interceptions so far this season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Jameis Winston, and no other team has surrendered as many points off of turnovers (51).

Those are two concerning statistics for a team that is 1-3 and without star running back Doug Martin as it travels to Carolina to face the defending NFC champions on Monday Night Football.

The strategy most defenses have against young quarterbacks with strong arms like Winston is to pressure them often, collapse the pocket and make them as uncomfortable as possible. You can see that with Winston, who has been blitzed on 41 percent of his dropbacks this season (80 times), more than any other quarterback in the league. The Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers is next at 38 percent.

Interestingly, Winston has been the league's best under duress this season with a quarterback rating of 88.3 when pressured, ahead of the Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr at 82.3. Winston has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions in those situations. Dropping back against the blitz, he has a rating of 94.0 -- fourth best in the league -- with three touchdowns and one interception.

When he's not being pressured or blitzed, he has a rating of 49.0 -- 29th in the league -- with three touchdowns and eight interceptions. The numbers suggest it's when Winston is not being pressured or blitzed that he runs into trouble. It also could be something opponents are picking up on.

Here's a deeper look, with help from ESPN Stats & Information, at Winston's accuracy and success rate this year against specific types of defensive packages:

Against three or fewer DBs: In Winston's 21 passing attempts against three defensive backs or fewer (he was pressured on 16 of those occasions, blitzed on nine), he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions, the third-best mark in the NFL behind Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. His 97.7 quarterback rating in this area is tops in the league.

Against base: In the 34 times he's passed against base defenses with four defensive backs, Winston has had the worst completion percentage of any quarterback in the league (47.1) and a quarterback rating of 27.6. He's thrown one interception against a base 3-4 and one touchdown against this type of coverage. Against the Denver Broncos this past Sunday, he completed just 2 of 8 passes (25 percent).

Against nickel: In 51 pass attempts against nickel packages (five defensive backs), Winston's completion percentage is 56.9 percent, the third-worst mark in the league, ahead of only Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's thrown one touchdown and three interceptions with a 38.0 quarterback rating, 27th in the league. Against the Broncos, he completed 7 of 9 passes, but one of Aqib Talib's two interceptions came with this type of coverage. Against 3-3-5 nickel defenses so far this season, Winston has had eight completions, eight incompletions and an interception. Against 4-2-5 nickel defenses, he's had 11 completions, seven incompletions, a touchdown and an interception.

Against dime: In 46 passing attempts against dime coverage (six defensive backs), Winston's completion percentage is 58.7 percent (22nd in the league) with one touchdown and four interceptions. His quarterback rating is 68.4. Against the Broncos, 12 of his passing attempts came against this type of coverage, in which he completed 50 percent of his passes and was picked off once. Against three down linemen and two linebackers, he's thrown nine completions, six incompletions and one interception. Against four down lineman with one linebacker, he's thrown 11 completions, seven incompletions, two interceptions and a touchdown.

Against quarters: In the 24 times Winston has passed against quarters packages with seven defensive backs on the field, his completion percentage is 66.7 percent, tied with Andrew Luck for 17th. He actually has a 92.6 quarterback rating here, which is the fourth best in the league, and a passer rating of 117.5, which is second best. He's thrown no interceptions and two touchdowns in this situation, averaging 7.71 yards per attempt. Every completion he's made in this situation has been a short pass to the right side of the field when he's needed 8 yards or more, with the exception of three plays.

So what conclusions can we draw? Based on numbers alone, it appears Winston's problems arise based on what he's seeing downfield, either due to disguised coverages, lack of separation from receivers and/or receivers not winning their routes, the result of playing two of the league's top secondaries (Arizona and Denver) or a combination of all of those factors.

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