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Red Sox's chances of reaching playoffs hinge on play away from Fenway

The Red Sox are counting on David Price to set a winning tone as he makes three starts on their current 11-game West Coast trip. Elsa/Getty Images

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- With six-plus hours in the air, here are six thoughts on the Boston Red Sox:

1. The schedule is a bear, but the math remains favorable.

Over the next 67 days, the Red Sox will play 63 games, 41 on the road and 17 on the West Coast.

Mercy.

"We've known this schedule exists from Opening Day," manager John Farrell said. "We knew the second half was going to take us away from Fenway Park for a good portion of the remaining games. It's a challenge for all of us. It certainly is."

But last season, the Houston Astros sewed up the second wild-card berth in the American League with only 86 wins. Assuming it will take roughly that many victories again, the Sox would have to finish only 31-32 to qualify for the postseason.

At 21-19, the Red Sox are one of three AL teams with a winning road record. If they go, say, 20-21 in their remaining road games, they would need to go only 11-11 at Fenway to reach 86 wins. That's very doable.

2. Once again, David Price can be a tone-setter.

Some team officials believe Price has been the victim of bad luck, including a .343 batting average on balls in play. Pedro Martinez thinks the struggling Red Sox ace needs only to relax and trust his ability. If that's the case, getting 3,000 miles away from Boston might actually be a good thing. Surely, facing the last-place Los Angeles Angels on Thursday night won't hurt, either.

Regardless, the Red Sox spent $217 million on Price for precisely what he will be charged with doing when the road trip begins at Angel Stadium: snapping a three-game losing streak and reversing a stretch of five losses in six games.

Price is due to make three starts on the 11-game trip, facing the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night and the Los Angeles Dodgers next Sunday. Now would be a good time to start pitching like himself again.

3. There might be relief on the way.

One National League talent evaluator had this to say about whether Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will be active before Monday's trade deadline: "I know he will add pieces. I haven't heard anything, but he'll add something for sure."

The bullpen is a safe guess.

Notwithstanding his comments from earlier in the week that "our bullpen will be fine," Dombrowski knows firsthand that there's no such thing as enough dependable relievers. Some of his most talented teams in Detroit were doomed by their lack of depth in the bullpen, and with setup man Koji Uehara sidelined indefinitely (more on that later), there's still room for Dombrowski to add relievers.

Besides, in this market, relievers are far less costly to acquire than starting pitchers. Only two weeks ago, Dombrowski sent two non-prospects to Arizona for submarining right-hander Brad Ziegler, whose contract will expire at season's end. Don't be surprised to see him chase another two-month bullpen rental.

4. Will Sandy Leon really be the Red Sox's primary catcher for the rest of the season?

A 3-for-16 funk hasn't changed the fact that Leon is a more confident hitter since his productive winter-ball season in Venezuela. But maybe he isn't the second coming of Pudge Rodriguez, after all. Nothing about his track record in the minors (.238 average, .654 OPS in 2,016 at-bats) suggested he was going to suddenly morph into a terrific hitter at the big-league level.

That's what made my ESPN colleague Jerry Crasnick's report this week that the Red Sox are among several teams "in the mix" to trade for Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy so intriguing.

The Sox surely have bigger problems than their catching situation, where Leon has played his way into the conversation about whether Christian Vazquez or Blake Swihart would be the team's "catcher of the future." But one does wonder if the Sox could use one of those young catchers in a package to land Lucroy, who's 30 years old and a two-time All-Star with a .284 career average, superb defensive skills and a reasonable $5.25 million team option for next season.

It might be more likely, though, that the Red Sox stick with whichever internal catching option is playing the best and attempt to derive an offensive boost from an August or September call-up of top prospect Andrew Benintendi, who recently began playing left field at Double-A Portland.

5. Don't count on seeing Uehara again.

Uehara hasn't addressed English-speaking reporters since he went on the disabled list eight days ago, but he told Japanese media that he expects to miss a month with a strained right pectoral muscle.

That might be optimistic.

Farrell explained that pectoral injuries are atypical for pitchers because the shoulder has a tendency to incur damage first. Dombrowski said recently that the only pitcher he can recall having a pectoral injury was Detroit Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who missed seven weeks with his injury in 2014.

Not only is Uehara's injury uncommon, but he's also 41, an age at which he might take longer to recover than others.

6. Even if they make the playoffs, the Red Sox aren't going anywhere if they don't learn to win low-scoring games.

The Sox are 18-8 in blowouts, defined as games that are decided by more than five runs. They're also 47-13 when they score five runs or more.

Neither of those scenarios is common in October.

Postseason games tend to be low-scoring and close, and the Red Sox haven't fared particularly well in either situation. When they score fewer than five runs in a game, they are 8-31, and they have gone 11-12 in one-run games.