NBA teams
Ben Alamar, ESPN Stats & Info 9y

BPI: Untangling the crowded West

NBA, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers

We once appeared to be headed for an almighty battle for the West's last playoff spot, but suddenly that action has cooled. The Basketball Power Index gives the Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans a combined 11 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The interesting battle is between the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers, who are projected to finish third through sixth, in a tight knot, which means they will face each other in some combination. The four teams are projected to finish the season separated by no more than two wins.

Based on the BPI simulation of the rest of the season, the Clippers currently have the best shot at the third seed at 33 percent, but the rest of the contenders are not far behind. The Rockets (20 percent), Blazers (16 percent) and Mavericks (15 percent) are all nipping at the Clippers' heels (and the Memphis Grizzlies have a 14 percent chance of dropping down to the third seed, as well).

BPI takes into account strength of schedule, performance, preseason predictions and a range of other factors, but if you look even deeper -- at injuries, for instance -- the picture gets even more interesting.

The Rockets and the Blazers are the only teams in the NBA outside of the Golden State Warriors that have both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. The Rockets have played well despite the intermittent absences of Dwight Howard and the eighth-hardest schedule to this point in the season. And now, the team that leads the league in 3-point attempts -- by over 300 shots -- while shooting 35 percent from 3, has added Pablo Prigioni, a lifetime 41 percent 3-point shooter. The Rockets are a good team that could easily get better.

The Blazers, meanwhile, appear to be stumbling, as they have fallen three spots in the rankings. A closer examination, though, reveals that, despite a bad loss to the Jazz, the Blazers are just a half point behind the third-place Mavericks. Given their balance on both sides of the court, and the 71 percent chance they will enter the playoffs with the fourth seed, they are in good position to advance against either the Clippers or the Mavericks, both of whom have a 28 percent chance of securing the fifth seed.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Clippers and Mavericks are likely to face real challenges come playoff time. These teams are the top two offenses in the Western Conference, but both have below-average defenses, which seems to matter in the playoffs. No team in the BPI database, which stretches back to 1996, has won a championship with a below-average defense.

The Mavericks' defense has been improving throughout the season, so perhaps they can turn it around.

The Clippers, however, despite the presence of Doc Rivers, who once coached a legendary defense in Boston, have not, and one of the key issues is foul trouble. The Clippers have the fourth-highest opponent free throw rate in the league. Only the New York Knicks, Suns and Denver Nuggets send their opponents to the free throw line more frequently than the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan, Matt Barnes and, when healthy, Blake Griffin all commit more than four personal fouls per 100 possessions.

It's a team that does a lot well. Jordan, for instance, leads the league in blocks. But if they cannot tone down the fouling, history suggests it will be tough to advance.

BPI notes:

  • Biggest riser: Cleveland Cavaliers have moved up four spots to sixth

  • Biggest faller: Portland Trail Blazers are down three spots to seventh

  • The Grizzlies have a 3 percent chance of catching the Warriors for the top spot in the West.

  • There is a 53 percent chance the Thunder will play the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.

  • The Cavaliers have a 15 percent chance of capturing the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Note: The NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiencies, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. Ratings will be updated in this space weekly.

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