True story: The past 20 NBA champs have, on average, ranked better on defense than offense. D equals W's. So on the following pages, you'll find heat maps from analytics genius Austin Clemens that graphically project each team's 2014-15 defense based on two years of shot data. How might the Thunder, Cavs and Bulls upend the Spurs? The maps, along with ESPN's starting unit of hoops experts, show you the way.*

* Projections as of Oct. 15. ESPN Forecast was re-polled after the injury to Kevin Durant.

CONFERENCE RANK

*Number of games each team would win if they had an average defense

The Cavaliers didn't just make a splash this summer; it was more like a meteor crashing into Lake Erie. Cleveland had some misses during its rebuild over the past few years, but there was enough in place with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson to entice LeBron to return to the Q. Plus, Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett -- the past two No. 1 picks -- turned out to be sweet trade fodder.

As we saw in Miami, where James goes, ring-chasers will follow. So once Kevin Love decided he would not remain in Minnesota for the long haul, the Cavaliers were in perfect position to cash in on Wiggins and Bennett. The acquisition of Love pushes Irving down to third in the pecking order and creates the best big three in the NBA, one that projects to have an absurdly league-best 118 ORtg.

This isn't an exceptionally deep team, and it could be undone if Waiters can't relegate himself to a supporting role or if Love can't re-adapt to his former status as a board crasher and complementary offensive option. Nevertheless, according to SCHOENE, the Cavaliers project as the city's best hope in a long time to end a 50-year title drought.

They might be perennial free agent bridesmaids, but it's better to focus on what the Bulls already have than what they didn't get. Besides, for all Chicago's offseason efforts, a healthy Derrick Rose is the real headline addition. Rose has played in just 49 of 230 regular-season games over the past three years, and the former MVP enters the season as the league's biggest wildcard. The good news is the Bulls have built a decentralized roster that transcends the former Rose-dominant model.

Their biggest offseason get was the signing of Pau Gasol (career ORtg of 113), whom the Bulls turned to after Carmelo Anthony decided to stay in New York. Gasol gives Chicago a second super-skilled big man to go with Joakim Noah and a versatile inside-outside scorer to pair with Rose. The Bulls also added European sharpshooter Nikola Mirotic (46.1 3PT% at Real Madrid) and college super-scorer Doug McDermott, who should help the league's 28th-ranked offense.

Noah, super-sub Taj Gibson and workhorse wing Jimmy Butler have emerged as a rock-solid defensive core, and Tom Thibodeau is a top coach. The health and production of Rose, though, will likely be the barometer in determining whether the Bulls will be good or great. But at least great is back on the table.

John Wall wants to go to the Finals this season. And if Bradley Beal, after he returns from a wrist injury that is expected to sideline him for six to eight weeks, keeps developing like he has, Wall's wish might not be too far off base. Beal had a breakout postseason for the ages. He averaged 19.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and a 17.0 PER before he could legally drink; only Magic Johnson and Kobe Bryant have been more productive on the playoff stage at age 20. Oh, and Wall now has a 3-point shot himself (35.1 3PT% last season) and his first All-Star appearance under his belt. And at 24, he hasn't even begun his prime, either.

The Wizards have a stacked frontcourt with Paul Pierce inking a two-year deal and Marcin Gortat signing a monster, five-year, $60-million deal that takes him to -- gulp -- 36 years old. Randy Wittman, despite leading the team to a mediocre 17th-ranked offense, got himself a contract extension after his first winning campaign in nine seasons as a head coach. With more veterans such as Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair coming to town, the Wizards look better than they have in a decade. But they're locked into a win-now roster that's littered with injury histories-Wall, Beal and Otto Porter Jr. (average age of 22) have all missed significant time. And with a quarter of a billion dollars in committed money, are the Wizards ready and talented enough to truly compete?

Another season, another team spurred by trading away Rudy Gay. The Raptors were 7-12 before sending Gay to Sacramento and 41-22 after, as guards Kyle Lowry (20.2 PER) and DeMar DeRozan (22.7 PPG) flourished with added responsibilities. That added up to a surprise Atlantic Division title. But to repeat that feat, all eyes will be on Jonas Valanciunas.

Year two was supposed to be a breakout season for the 6-foot-11 Lithuanian center. But while his numbers were solid (11.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG), they came in an ancillary role: He ranked just ninth on the team in frontcourt touches (20.5 per game), according to SportVU's player tracking data. A more aggressive Valanciunas creates a different dynamic for the Raptors, particularly with Johnson (4.61 real plus-minus, 16th in the NBA) taking care of all the little things alongside of him.

The Raptors need to get more points from the subs after ranking 28th in the NBA in bench scoring and are hoping Louis Williams can provide it after arriving in a trade with Atlanta. If that happens, and Toronto's young players (Valanciunas, DeRozan, Terrence Ross) continue to develop, this has the makings of a top-shelf team in the wide-open East. If not, well, they can always try signing and trading Rudy Gay again.

No LeBron, no problem? Actually, you can expect a fairly bumpy ride in South Florida next season as Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh try to right the ship in the King's absence. After James spurned Heat godfather Pat Riley, the front office quickly went into recovery mode by bringing Bosh and Wade back along with Chris Andersen, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem. To help the cause, Miami beefed up the perimeter with Luol Deng, McRoberts and Danny Granger.

The Heat have reloaded in an effort to contend for the East crown. However, there's one small problem: Not only are the Heat trotting out the league's fifth-oldest roster, they forgot to get a safety net for Wade. Ray Allen is off the radar, and the Heat are relying on retreads Shannon Brown and Reggie Williams to back up Wade, who has played a full season just twice in the last five years. The Heat gave Bosh a max contract and hope he can rediscover the magic that made him the most efficient post-up player in the NBA in 2009-10. Most of the team is on short-term deals that give Riley some flexibility to pivot over the next two offseasons if things go south. Did we mention Kevin Durant is a free agent in 2016?

Can you hear it? No, we're not talking about Lance Stephenson blowing in your ear. The noise is the buzz in Charlotte after their switch back to the Hornets and their classic purple-and-teal unis. Stephenson has indeed joined Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson's squad that shockingly reached the postseason in 2013-14 just two seasons removed from winning a grand total of seven games. The former Pacer was the Hornets' backup plan after they couldn't scare the Utah Jazz from matching their max offer sheet to Gordon Hayward. Stephenson will certainly bring entertainment and talent to a team that desperately needs some dynamic athleticism on the perimeter.

But losing furry-faced facilitator Josh McRoberts (4.3 APG) to Miami will sting, especially for an offense that ranked 24th last season. Charlotte hopes former Tar Heel Marvin Williams can continue to sharpen his 3-point shot (35.9 3PT% last year), as he is slotted into the Hornets' frontcourt.

It was a miracle Steve Clifford got his young squad to rank sixth in defensive efficiency the past season, but it'll be harder to maintain that stout defense while focusing more on the offensive end, where the team is still projected to land in the bottom 10 this season. Can Stephenson thrive amid what was the NBA's most pass-happy team the past season? Either way, this defense gets you to the playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks have a shot at reaching the playoffs for the eighth straight season. The only team that can boast a longer streak? Yup, the champion Spurs. Unfortunately, no one's really paying much attention to the Hawks' on-court pursuits at the moment. After racially insensitive comments came to light from both owner Bruce Levenson and general manager Danny Ferry, the Hawks enter the 2014-15 season with a cloud of shameful uncertainty; the team is up for sale, and Ferry is on indefinite leave. That's too bad because the Hawks have made some interesting moves on the court.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer innovated on the floor this past postseason. He started a quintet of 3-point shooters-Kyle Korver (47.2 3PT%), Paul Millsap (35.8%) and DeMarre Carroll (36.2%)-that nearly knocked off the Indiana Pacers in the first round. And that was without two-time All-Star Al Horford, who returns after missing most of the past season with a torn pectoral muscle. Although the Hawks mostly struck out in free agency with tons of cap space at hand, they reeled in former Thunder 3-and-D specialist Thabo Sefolosha to add much-needed depth. However, the team's bench is still as shallow as a puddle after they shed Lou Williams' contract. Feel free to pencil in another playoff trip for Millsap and the Hawks. But with a front office in flux, anything's possible -- even a playoff miss.

The future is now for the Nets. That's not necessarily a reflection of how bright the present is as much as an indication of just how dark the horizon looks. They're capped out from now until eternity and have traded their first-round picks in 2016 and 2018, which spells trouble for an aging squad.

If Deron Williams (17.7 PER, lowest since 2006-07) can rediscover his effectiveness and Brook Lopez (96 games played in the last three seasons total) stays healthy, the Nets could have an effective pick-and-roll combo to go with Joe Johnson, who stabilized last season's team with efficient scoring (53.3 eFG%). In the East, that alone could earn a playoff spot. They'll also need continued progress from Mason Plumlee (19.1 PER as a rookie), since the losses of Paul Pierce and Shaun Livingston should end the small-ball approach that proved so effective last season. Instead, a Lopez/Plumlee combo up front could be a load for opposing big men to handle, and of course Kevin Garnett is still around to anchor the defense.

Still, if Williams' ankles don't respond and Lopez goes down again, the Nets have little margin for error. In that case, they should be thankful that they actually own their first-round pick in the 2015 draft.

It gets worse here every day. Unless the Zen Master discovered new ways to transcend the human form during his time away, he'll need to familiarize himself with a foreign sensation: losing. Because these Knicks are seriously lacking in both talent and structure.

The Jackson era begins with an isolation star as the focal point of a triangle offense. What could go wrong? Anthony continues to score lots of points (27.4 PPG) and use tons of possessions (32.3 USG%), while failing to elevate his teammates' play. Then again, those teammates include the broken-down Amar'e Stoudemire (22.6 MPG), the mercurial J.R. Smith (41.5 FG%) and the cringe-worthy Andrea Bargnani (27.8 3PT%). The addition of uber-efficient Jose Calderon (120 ORtg) at PG will help, but the league's 24th-ranked D (106.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) should be even worse with the Spaniard at the point of attack and Samuel Dalembert starting in place of Tyson Chandler.

Were the Knicks located somewhere other than New York or owned by a brighter bulb than James Dolan, this season would be about learning the limits of Iman Shumpert, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cleanthony Early and developing Derek Fisher's coaching skills. But that's not how things work at MSG, which means another season of watching a mismatched cast produce something similar to last season's 37 wins.

If basketball is a religion in Indiana, you have to wonder how the Pacers offended the basketball gods. A late-season swoon cast Larry Bird's budding program into doubt. Roy Hibbert started the season as a DPOY candidate, then turned into a near cipher. Lance Stephenson emerged as one of the NBA's most improved players, then bolted for Charlotte. Paul George generated early MVP chatter, cooled off, then was lost for the coming season due to a horrific broken leg. Everything that seemed so fresh and vibrant in Indiana suddenly disappeared.

The remaining prime scorer is David West, who at 34 is too old to carry an offense. Former Piston Rodney Stuckey (13.9 PPG) was plucked off the scrap bin and will likely emerge as a primary scorer for a point-starved team. If that doesn't sound like enough to offset the losses of Stephenson and George, you're right: SCHOENE is projecting only Orlando and Philadelphia to field worse offenses than the Pacers. If the nosedive the Pacers took late the past season is any indication, then it might be a good idea for Bird to kickstart his initiatives for the 2015-16 season as soon as possible.

No team in recent memory has demonstrated the difference between fantasy basketball and the real thing more than the past season's Pistons. The experts warned that the skills of promising bigs Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith wouldn't mesh. And what do you know? Detroit's attempt at fielding a 1990s-style lineup flopped and flailed like an angry Bill Laimbeer. Smith, forced into a perimeter-based SF role, chucked 3-pointers like he was the next Freddie Brown (a career-high 3.4 3PA per game at a 26.4% clip). Jennings' usage rate soared even as he decried becoming a pass-first point guard. And Monroe, a natural center, bristled at his lack of touches and saw his production (18.1 PER) regress to his rookie rate. Only emerging star Drummond took a step forward, though his foul-shooting would make Wilt Chamberlain blush.

Enter everybody's favorite optimist, Stan Van Gundy, who will try to clean things up with more organizational clout than he's ever had. He added much-needed shooting over the summer in Jodie Meeks, D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler, in hopes of breaking up the past season's spacing nightmare, but the real problems are at the other end. There is no reason a team with this much length and athletic ability should flounder as the 25th-ranked defense, and Van Gundy has always been a top producer on that end. But the same trio of bigs returns, in the same spots, with the same problems. And there's little new coach Stan Van Gundy can do.

After two years of sitting idly in a slow rebuild through the draft, it was a busy offseason in Orlando. The Magic, which had lost more games than any other since Dwight Howard left Orlando in 2012 and features a 23-and-under crew of Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Maurice Harkless, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris, selected defensive prospect Aaron Gordon with the fourth overall pick, but then pushed on the accelerator, throwing $32 million at 31-year-old stretch 4 Channing Frye, who was one of the most transformative NBA players (11th in the NBA) around the past season, according to ESPN's real plus-minus. It was a curiously win-now move for a team decidedly still in rebuild mode.

But then again, it's hard to tell whether the Magic are serious about winning this season after they dumped Arron Afflalo's contract into Denver's hands while waiving Jameer Nelson and Jason Maxiell. So unless Frye can somehow help revitalize Orlando's youth like he did with the Phoenix roster last season, it's hard to imagine the Magic propelling themselves out of the basement. Second-year player Oladipo can have a big hand in that after a disappointing rookie season (13.6 PER), but this rebuilding plan, even with Frye, doesn't appear to be getting off the ground anytime soon. Prepare for a whole bunch of losses, especially if Frye is dealt to a winning team at the deadline.

The Celtics have a decision to make, and the clock is ticking. Rajon Rondo will be a free agent this summer, and after the Celtics drafted Marcus Smart in June, Rondo doesn't seem to be a part of their rebuilding plan. How much value can Boston get in return for its point guard by February's trade deadline? That's going to be a far more interesting saga than what the Celtics do on the court.

And though the decisions aren't as pressing as the one involving Rondo, the Celtics will also need to figure out what to do with veteran forwards Jeff Green and Brandon Bass, especially if they can generate interest on the trade market. Shipping them out to acquire draft picks and cap space makes a lot of sense, especially with a host of young players needing playing time to develop.

On the court, the Celtics did little to upgrade the NBA's fourth-worst offense (102.9 points per 100 possessions), unless you count signing the perpetually inefficient Evan Turner (12.4 PER). Instead, they'll hope young big men Jared Sullinger (13.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG in 27.6 MPG) and Kelly Olynyk (16.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG in April) continue to develop and that Smart shows enough promise to take over at the point in a post-Rondo world next season, when they'll have $30 million to throw around.

The long-stagnant Bucks nosedived to a franchise-worst 67 losses the past season, yet paradoxically generated the organization's first signs of hope in a long time. A flashy new ownership group joined former steward Senator Herb Kohl in pledging funds for a new downtown arena the NBA has said is a necessity for the team to remain in Milwaukee. That wouldn't matter much if the Bucks were doomed for perpetual lottery purgatory, but team architect John Hammond is well on his way to building a contending foundation.

Jabari Parker, the second overall pick in June, has both a star player's mentality and tool box. He'll be joined by revelation Giannis Antetokounmpo -- the Greek Freak in common parlance -- a raw, long bundle of rare skills who looks like a contender for Most Improved Player. Hyper-athletic big man Larry Sanders (career 3.5 BPG) and Antetokounmpo spearhead a Milwaukee defense with exciting potential. Meanwhile, Parker could lead the Bucks in scoring and will work alongside underrated combo guard Brandon Knight (19.4/3/8/5.3 last season) as the Bucks' key offensive threats.

If new coach Jason Kidd can leverage his club's athleticism, the Bucks will be fun to watch. And next summer, they should land yet another elite lottery prospect. It's still just potential, but even that's progress in Milwaukee.

Philly's unspoken goal continues to be to win as few games as possible, and this season's squad is well-suited to epically tank. The Sixers' best player, rookie of the year PG Michael Carter-Williams, can't shoot (43.1% eFG). Their starting center missed all of his rookie season last year with a knee injury (Nerlens Noel). And their top pick this year, Joel Embiid, is likely on the Noel recovery plan for all of 2014-15 after foot surgery.

Then think about this: The 76ers had the league's worst offense (99.4 ORtg) and fourth-worst defense (109.9 DRtg) last season, and that was before they traded away their best player, forward Thaddeus Young, and added no veterans of consequence (No, Alexey Shved and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute don't count). They'll rely on the likes of Tony Wroten (45.2 eFG%) and Hollis Thompson to create offense, a phrase that should never, ever be written about an NBA team. At least second-round picks K.J. McDaniels and Jerami Grant should get plenty of opportunities to play right away. SCHOENE projects the 76ers to win 12 games, and even that might be generous. With a roster this empty in talent and experience, and a front office hardly motivated to win now, the 1972-73 Sixers' record of 73 losses is in serious jeopardy.

What, you thought the San Antonio Spurs were done? That Tim Duncan and coach Gregg Popovich would just ride off into the sunset after winning their fifth title together? Nah, the old band is running it back for an encore. The Spurs will return over 90 percent of their minutes from last season's championship squad in an attempt to snatch another Larry O'Brien trophy. Yes, Timmy, Tony, Manu, Kawhi, Boris, Tiago, Danny, Patty, Marco and, of course, the Red Mamba will all be back for our basketball viewing pleasure.

Oh, and they'll have some fresh new blood, too. Kyle Anderson, the Boris Diaw protege from UCLA, is in the fold after being the only NCAA player in the past 15 years to average at least 14 points, eight rebounds and six assists in a season.

The Spurs will have company at the top of the West with the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder reloading. But after breaking up the Big Three in Miami, snagging Anderson with the 30th pick and bringing everyone back for another run to the Finals, one thing is clear: Old news is good news.

With the ouster of Donald Sterling, the Clippers finally took that last step to legitimacy; no longer are they a two-bit operation run by a bigoted owner who saw the team as nothing more than a minstrel show to entertain him and his Hollywood buddies. He's gone, but so are the excuses. The Clippers have won two consecutive division titles, including a franchise-record 57 wins last year, but have never been to the conference finals.

During the offseason, they upgraded their bench by using their non-taxpayer exceptions to add guard Jordan Farmar and stretch 4 Spencer Hawes, both of whom are prolific 3-point threats (43.8 percent and 41.6 percent, respectively, last year), adding much-needed spacing for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Throw in vet minimum signings Chris Douglas-Roberts and Ekpe Udoh, and the Clips are a lot deeper and more complete than they've ever been. But the clocking is ticking. Chris Paul, statistically the greatest PG in NBA history, hasn't played close to a full season in three years and turns 30 in May, and Jordan is entering the last year of his deal. A division title no longer cuts it for the Clippers.

The clock is ticking for the Thunder, who no longer clearly top the West in terms of talent or potential. In addition to worrying about catching the Spurs, who defeated them in the 2014 Western Conference Finals, the Thunder should fear a challenge from the rising Clippers, according to SCHOENE. While Oklahoma City had a better record than L.A. and won their playoff series this past season, the Clippers had a better point differential (+7.0 vs. +6.3) and were outscored by just five points total in the six-game series.

Even before Kevin Durant was lost for two months to a broken foot, the Thunder were fighting on two fronts. To catch the Spurs, who beat them in the Western Conference Finals, and to hold off the Clippers, OKC needs improvement from within. New shooting guard Anthony Morrow (45.1 percent from 3 last year) is a nice addition, but the team is really counting on one of its young wings (Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones and Andre Roberson) to step up. Second-year center Steven Adams (projected WARP of 1.5) needs to take more minutes from starter Kendrick Perkins', whose -3.3. projected WARP is the worst in basketball.

Now, it's still realistic the Thunder will get and stay healthy, emerge from the gauntlet that is the West playoffs and end this season as champions. Any other scenario, though, and the narrative shifts toward Durant's 2016 free agency.

For a team that cracked the 50-win plateau for the first time in 20 years, there certainly was a lot of friction. An unimaginative playbook that didn't cater to the roster's strengths led to a mediocre 12th-ranked offense (a massive underachievement considering the backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, both of whom shot 42 percent from three). Yet, that was overshadowed by the conflict between head coach Mark Jackson and his coaching staff, leading to the dismissal of two assistant coaches in two separate incidents just weeks before the start of the playoffs.

With new head coach Steve Kerr at the helm, the Warriors hope to unlock their stunted offensive potential by cobbling together a "best of" playbook from Kerr's various coaching influences -- some triangle offense here, a little "7 seconds or less" there, a splash of Spurs continuity. But beyond the diversified playbook, Golden State also enhanced its bench by adding guards Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush and Leandro Barbosa, giving the Warriors more lineup flexibility as they chase the franchise's first division title in nearly 40 years.

After two years in the lottery, the Blazers made an unbelievable 21-win leap in the standings last season, culminating with Damian Lillard's series-winning shot in the first round of the playoffs to advance for the first time since 2000. Typically, a 21-game improvement from one season to the next means a decline in the third year, a version of regression to the mean that baseball writer Bill James termed "the plexiglass principle." Since the ABA-NBA merger, the 27 teams who improved by at least 20 wins in one season won one fewer game the following season, on average.

Certainly, Portland can expect to suffer worse health (four of its starters played all 82 games). Only the Toronto Raptors lost fewer minutes to injuries this past season. The consistency of the Blazers' starting five, so crucial to the team's fast start (24-6 over their first 30 games), will be difficult to reproduce, so expect Portland to win something closer to 50 games than last season's 54. But that still might be enough to move up in the Western Conference standings. With Houston losing key pieces-Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin-and the Golden State Warriors passing on Kevin Love, the Blazers could be the class of the Western Conference's second tier.

Looking for a long shot to win the West? How about the Mavs? They won 49 games last season and took the Spurs to seven games in the first round. And now they've added Chandler Parsons as a legit third offensive weapon to pair with Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis. Last season's Ellis signing proved to be a deft one, as his skills as a penetrator sparked the Mavs' offense. Nowitzki was as efficient as ever and appears to still be going strong at 36. They'll get much-needed help on defense as center Tyson Chandler returns to the scene of his greatest NBA success. If healthy, he should provide some interior backbone to a team that was 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating. And Richard Jefferson adds his 40 percent 3-point stroke to an exceptionally deep bench.

But the team will challenge the West's elite only if Rick Carlisle can make sense of his three-headed enigma of mediocre 30-something PGs: Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson and Raymond Felton. Harris looked like his old self in the playoffs against the Spurs, and his defense would be a clear upgrade over Jose Calderon's. But both he and Nelson can't seem to stay healthy; the Mavs can't afford that problem, and be left relying on Felton, if they want to keep their offense running smoothly.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Houston cast for the big fish on the free-agent market and nearly landed Chris Bosh with a max offer that would have given the Rockets a third star to go with James Harden and Dwight Howard. To do so, Rockets GM Daryl Morey had to sacrifice depth, trading away PG Jeremy Lin and C Omer Asik, but the worst blow of all was losing Chandler Parsons to the Mavericks on a restricted free-agent offer. Still, the team is in a good position. Harden (120 ORtg) and Howard are an all-league duo, and signee Trevor Ariza was a better player than Parsons last season. Patrick Beverley is one of the best defensive guards in the league and is the rare point guard who can augment a ball dominator like Harden. Terrence Jones, who averaged 16 PPG and 9.1 RPG per 36 minutes last season, would have been pushed to the bench or traded had Houston landed Bosh, but he's an emerging player at the 4.

And though this year's they'll rely on an inexperienced bench, there is upside in guards Troy Daniels and Isaiah Canaan and forward Donatas Motiejunas. The Rockets won't enter the 2014-15 title conversation, but they're on the fringe and can push for an impact acquisition again next summer.

Stability is overrated. After making the 2013 Western Conference Finals, the Grizzlies let head coach Lionel Hollins leave, replacing him with assistant Dave Joerger -- only for owner Robert Pera to consider firing Joerger during his first year on the job. An offseason shake-up turned over the front office and brought GM Chris Wallace back from exile, and Joerger interviewed for the Minnesota Timberwolves' coaching job before signing an extension. Still, Memphis followed a second consecutive 50-win season with a strong summer, drafting statistical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes (acquired through a draft-night trade) and signing Vince Carter as a free agent.

Though the age of their stars is a concern -- SCHOENE projects Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and newly extended Zach Randolph all to decline this season -- the biggest challenge for the Grizzlies is the rest of their conference. Despite improving their wing rotation with the addition of Carter and last season's trade for Courtney Lee, the Grizzlies are unlikely to crack the top three in the West. The conference's depth means any stumble could leave them facing a challenging first-round matchup, if not out of the playoffs altogether.

With Goran Dragic and the return of Eric Bledsoe, who signed a five-year, $70 million deal in the offseason, the Suns boast one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league. Then they signed Isaiah Thomas (20.3/5.9 last season), who will back up Dragic, and drafted rookie wing T.J. Warren, who averaged 24.9 PPG at NC State, cementing their perimeter for the foreseeable future.

Although sharpshooting big Channing Frye left via free agency, the Suns managed to retain the Morris twins at a decent package rate, as well as primary wing defender P.J. Tucker.

It will be interesting to see how second-year coach Jeff Hornacek handles two major issues: divvying up minutes-and shots-among a roster deep on perimeter talent, and overcoming the lack of size. For the Suns to surprise once again, they'll have to resort to "guerilla warfare" tactics, forcing teams to play down to their size and tempo.

Injuries robbed the Pelicans of what should have been a playoff-berth contending season; a season later, they hope to fulfill the promise their roster boasts. New Orleans has arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA, with newly acquired Omer Asik (103 DRtg) at center alongside budding superstar Anthony Davis, who at 21 averaged 20.8/10 and a league-leading 2.8 blocks per game.

The conversation about Davis being perhaps the best player in the NBA is one that will happen in months, not years. He'll be expected to carry over some of the tricks he picked up with Team USA to lead a Pelicans roster that's much improved from last season. Wing John Salmons is an effective secondary ball handler and good 3-point shooter (career 36.6%), and getting premier stretch 4 Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday back after injury-ravaged seasons will also give them a much-needed boost. Will that be enough to secure a playoff berth in the ultra-competitive West? No, but that's not the goal this season. The most important thing for the Pels-the second youngest team in the West-is to start moving in the right direction. With a healthy Davis, they're on the way.

With the return of Arron Afflalo, who regressed to an average player (107 ORtg) during his two-year exile in Orlando, Denver has reunited the five players who started the most games for the 2011-12 team that went 38-28 after the lockout. As such, hope for a return to the postseason after a one-year absence is reasonable.

Besides how quickly multiple players returning from ACL injuries (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, who was suspended five games for violating the terms of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program, and Nate Robinson) get back up to speed, the biggest question for the Nuggets is on the sideline. Nobody juggled a deep roster without a clear go-to player like George Karl, the 2013 NBA Coach of the Year. And replacement Brian Shaw has yet to demonstrate he can have the same success. SCHOENE projects Denver to have the seventh-best offense, led by Gallinari, who in 2012-13 shot 37 percent from three and produced a terrific 116 ORtg, but the D projects to 24th.

The biggest issue for Denver is external-the West is simply too deep. Not only do the Nuggets have to make up a 13-game gap in the standings between themselves and the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks, but they also need to hold off other lottery challengers who figure to improve. So once again, as has been the case for the last decade, the Nuggets are talented enough to compete for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to truly begin a rebuild. NBA purgatory, thy name is Denver.

It will be up to DeMarcus Cousins, 24, if the Kings hope to end their eight-season playoff drought, but even his continued high-level production (22.7/11.7/2.9 last season) won't be enough in the West.

Indeed, if there were awards for offseason play, the Kings would probably win the top prize: Their two stars, Cousins and Rudy Gay, played pivotal roles in helping Team USA capture gold at the FIBA World Cup, while the franchise's entry won the Las Vegas Summer League championship. But there aren't any bonus points for playing well between July and September. Cousins' immaturity issues have certainly held him, and his team, back. But it seems like being in the positive environment of Team USA has given him some perspective. Well, the Kings hope so, anyway.

Even so, the offseason roster enhancements, or lack thereof, will be of little help, as the Kings opted to replace offensive sparkplug Isaiah Thomas with Darren Collison, an inferior player by almost any metric (but perhaps tellingly, someone who doesn't have an issue with Cousins). Drafting Nik Stauskas will add much-needed spacing, of which the Kings don't have enough, but his addition won't suffice. This roster still is bedeviled by too many shoot-first players -- the offense projects to be 19th in the league -- and poor defense.

So, as for that drought? Stay thirsty, my friends.

Two years ago, the Lakers landed All-Star center Dwight Howard and seemed poised to extend their contention window by another decade. Now Lakers fans are praying the team's pingpong balls pop in the right direction next May.

How the mighty have fallen.

During the offseason, the Lakers lost Pau Gasol, who still produced (17.4/9.7/3.4) despite playing with Nick Young, Wesley Johnson and 83-year-old Steve Nash.

The truly sad part? This year's roster is actually better than last year's. The offseason additions of Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis and Jeremy Lin are all upgrades over the players who manned those roles last year. And having Kobe Bryant and Nash playing in uniform this season is obviously an improvement over having them sitting in designer suits and skinny jeans. Draft picks Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson also are breaths of fresh air for a team that hasn't had any youth to look forward to since Andrew Bynum. Still, new coach Byron Scott will lead a march to the bottom, where even LA's 2015 first-rounder isn't assured: It goes to the Suns if it falls outside the top five. Welcome to the cellar, Laker Nation.

The danger in Minnesota's stated attempt to rebuild while competing for a playoff spot -- after trading Kevin Love -- is that the team will almost certainly fall short of both goals. Without Love, it's going to be difficult for the Timberwolves to match the past season's 40 wins, let alone improve enough to crack a loaded Western Conference playoff race. Both box-score stats and plus-minus data indicate Love was one of the league's most valuable players this past season, and while Thaddeus Young is a solid starter (projected WARP of 6.2), he's a major downgrade. Realistically, Minnesota is likely looking at a win total in the mid-30s.

If the Wolves aren't competitive this season, which they likely won't be, they might regret giving up a potentially valuable first-round pick for Young (acquired for also-rans Alexey Shved and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute during the offseason), who can also opt to become a free agent next summer. Eventually, they might have no choice but to trade veterans Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic and rebuild around their young talent. Although acquiring Andrew Wiggins is an excellent start, it's not yet clear if any of Minnesota's other prospects will develop into solid starters in the NBA. Even the duo of Wiggins and Ricky Rubio, while young and exciting and dunk-happy, projects to shoot an ice-cold 42.5 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. The Timberpups have some pieces, but the NBA's longest playoff absence, now a decade long in Minnesota, is in no danger of ending.

Like 2013-14, this season is more about development than wins in Utah. If the young core -- PF Derrick Favors (13.3/8/7) and Gordon Hayward (one of only five NBA players to average 16/5/5) -- takes a step forward with more schematic assistance from new head coach Quin Snyder, and talented 19-year-old rookie Dante Exum is able to contribute right away, the Jazz have a reasonable chance of hitting 30 wins. But Utah is still far from competing for a playoff spot. For now, the bigger issue is sorting through the talent to determine which youngsters are part of the team's future and which are replaceable.

The Jazz started facing that difficult question this past summer with Hayward, who emerged as a coveted option in a market thin on wings. The Charlotte Hornets offered him the largest possible deal -- nearly $63 million over four years -- and the Jazz swallowed hard before matching. Hayward's deal will shape Utah's decisions with its next crop of free agents. Both Alec Burks and Enes Kanter are eligible for extensions this fall and will otherwise become restricted free agents in 2015. The Jazz also must determine whether Exum or 2013 first-round pick Trey Burke is their point guard of the future, or whether the two can eventually share the backcourt.