NCAAF teams
Sharon Katz, ESPN Analytics 9y

How to make the playoff

Insider College Football, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oregon Ducks, TCU Horned Frogs, Florida State Seminoles, Ohio State Buckeyes, Baylor Bears, Arizona Wildcats, Kansas State Wildcats, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there is a 62 percent chance that one of the top four teams will lose this weekend and a 18 percent chance that two of them lose.

That means that teams such as Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas State and Georgia Tech are still alive.

For the current top four, the formula is simple: Win and you're in. After the committee moved TCU to No. 3, there does not appear to be a scenario in which one of the top four teams wins and does not make the playoff.

Alabama is the only team in the nation that can afford a loss and still have an argument for inclusion. The Tide are the best (No. 1 in FPI) and most deserving (No. 1 in strength of record) team to this point in the season. They have more quality wins than any other team in contention, and even with a loss, they would have a stronger résumé than most teams that they would be compared against.

Among current two-loss teams, Arizona, Kansas State and Georgia Tech are all still alive in the playoff hunt. Arizona, with a win against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, may need only a loss by two other top six teams to make the playoff. Kansas State, with a win against Baylor, would have a great case for inclusion as a co-champion or champion (if TCU loses) of the Big 12. Finally, Georgia Tech, with a win against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, would have won three straight games against top-20 opponents and given themselves a chance to make the playoff if the chips fell right.

All of these results are contingent not only on if a team wins/losses but how they looked in those games. If Ohio State squeaks by Wisconsin and Cardale Jones has four turnovers, the committee will have to evaluate the Buckeyes' new QB situation. Similarly, if Alabama gets blown out by Missouri, its chances of making the playoff with a loss will greatly diminish.

With the understanding that if the top four teams win and are in, below are the possible scenarios for the five teams outside the current top four to make the playoff. Wisconsin and Missouri were also included for discussion, but even with a win in their respective conference championship games, their résumés were not deemed strong enough to make the cut. It is important to note that most of these scenarios have a small chance of occurring. But hey, anything is possible.

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