LAS VEGAS -- When is a favorite not a favorite? When it becomes an underdog, of course.
That sounds obvious enough, but it's not always clear in the betting marketplace.
In last Monday's Opening Line Report, I wrote about how the New York Giants were a 2.5-point home favorite over the Arizona Cardinals, but that was before the Giants were blown out by the Lions and the Cardinals won a tough game against the Chargers. The Cardinals were made a short road favorite, and that's how most people viewed this game all week long, including in the Westgate SuperContest that had Arizona minus-2.5.
Then on Sunday morning, the news came out that Cardinals QB Carson Palmer was out with a shoulder injury and the line starting moving (closing with the Giants as a 2-point home favorite). So when the Cardinals won 25-14, a lot of people considered them a winning favorite, but in my book (I use the consensus closing lines from 14 Vegas books), it goes down as a win by the road underdog.
Every bettor doesn't get the same number and the only thing that matters to you is what line you got for a game, whether it's with an actual bet or in a contest or pool, but for the history books, I go with the consensus closing line because it's what the game went off at after all the oddsmakers, wiseguys and public bettors have had their chance to weigh in with their opinions.
Favorites and underdogs have split this week at 7-7-1 ATS heading into the Philadelphia-Indianapolis game on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" after 'dogs were 11-5 ATS in Week 1, making them 18-12-1 (60 percent after discounting the push) this season. Unders are 9-6 in Week 2 and 18-13 on the season.
Let's take a look at some early opening line moves for Week 3 and some other gambling takeaways from Week 2.
Off-the-board report
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday. (Note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those.) This is the section where we will note which games are off the board due to injuries. This week there are no such games as the Westgate put up all 16 games. The only game not involving Sunday/Monday night teams that was left off the board at other books was the Cowboys-Rams line due to the uncertainty of the St. Louis QB situation.
Early Week 3 line moves
Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 3 that were put up Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Buccaneers at Falcons (-5.5): This line looked solid at 5.5 as it sat there through the start of the Sunday night game, but it inched up to 6, which likely will be the most common line moving forward.
Chargers at Bills (-1): This was Bills minus-2.5 in the advance line at the Westgate, but after the Chargers' upset of the Seahawks, it reopened at pick 'em. After getting bet up to Bills minus-1 by the Sunday night kickoff, it went to minus-2 half an hour later. It should stay between 1 and 2 barring any major news or injuries.