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Duke's ground game needs to improve against Northwestern

Shaun Wilson and Duke will be challenged by Northwestern's stingy defense. AP/Gerald Herbert

After Northwestern's shutout victory Saturday against Eastern Illinois, Wildcats defensive lineman Ifeadi Ogenigbo ruffled a few feathers by suggested his defense would hold its next opponent — Duke — scoreless as well.

Blue Devils tailback Shaun Wilson took particular offense, suggesting Ogenigbo should be ready to back up his boast when Northwestern travels to Durham, N.C. this week, and Duke coach David Cutcliffe told the Raleigh News & Observer that he was fine with Wilson’s tweets.

“I know players want to get a little juice in the locker room, and we do that,” Cutcliffe told the newspaper. “But that’s not going to win or lose a football game at that moment, particularly if we didn’t prepare well.”

Once the game kicks off, the words won’t mean much, but Wilson’s performance should speak volumes because Duke’s running game figures to be critical against a stingy Northwestern defense.

The Wildcats have yet to allow a touchdown of any kind this season, though the dominant performance against Eastern Illinois was expected. That the Wildcats held Stanford, a team with a historically effective power running game, to just 85 yards on 27 carries in Week 1 should have Duke’s attention.

Of course, Duke should probably have been concerned about its rushing attack either way.

For the first half of last season, the Blue Devils had one of the ACC’s best running games, averaging 5.97 yards per rush on non-sack plays — ninth-best among Power 5 programs. In the final five games of 2014, however, that number plummeted to just 3.85 yards-per-carry, 55th in the Power 5 during that stretch. This can partially be explained by the competition, which included Syracuse and Virginia Tech. But even against the woeful North Carolina defense of 2014, Duke still mustered just 3.82 yards-per-rush.

And while the Blue Devils have piled up yardage in their first two games against overmatched opponents, the running game has continued to trend in the wrong direction. Duke ranks 12th in the ACC in both yards-per-rush and yards before contact-per-rush.

That latter number is probably the real concern. After Duke’s line dominated up front in the first half of last season, it’s yards before contact slipped precipitously down the stretch and has failed to significantly rebound this year, in spite of lackluster competition. Whether it’s a lack of push from the line or failure to hit the holes quick enough by the backs, Duke’s simply not getting much running room in games when it should be dominating (see: 2014 vs. Kansas).

If we focus more specifically on the running backs, Duke is averaging just 1.72 yards before contact-per-rush, which is worse than any other ACC team but Wake Forest.

While Northwestern hasn’t exactly dominated the line of scrimmage this season, the Wildcats have been strong at corralling runners quickly, allowing just 3.78 yards-per-carry and just eight runs of more than 10 yards. Even dating back to last season, Northwestern has allowed fewer yards-per-rush (not including sacks) than Ohio State and coughed up the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the Big Ten.

All of that is to say the focus will be on Wilson and the ground game for Duke. Thomas Sirk has shown he can be a dynamic weapon, but this is a bigger level of competition, and he can’t win the game alone.

So for Wilson, it’s about backing up his words, too. Duke’s running game needs a jolt of energy, and perhaps the minor war of words with Northwestern is just the trick to get it going again.