I've often written about our obsession with "today." That is our subconscious perspective that whatever is true right at this moment will continue to be true in the future. This affects virtually every aspect of our fantasy decision-making.
During these last two weeks of spring training, we are hanging on every news item that relates to positional battles. Will Shane Greene or Daniel Norris win the No. 5 starter job in Detroit? Will Brandon Drury steal a starting role from Jacob Lamb or Chris Owings? Who will start at first base for the Houston Astros?
The winners of these battles might come down to the final few March games. If the winners are Norris, Drury and Tyler White, then their respective draft prices will surely rise. But their March stats were driven by performances against subpar competition. Those positional pronouncements might have been based on a small sample of exceptional games at the end of the month, and those are hardly ringing endorsements for long-term success.