NCAAF teams
Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer 8y

How perceptions of wins and losses change

College Football

As the season changes, so does the perception of wins and losses.

One of the more ambiguous and subjective evaluations from the College Football Playoff selection committee is how it judges wins against teams that were ranked at the time but have since fallen out of the Top 25. What matters most in the end is how many victories a team has over opponents in the committee's latest Top 25. However, the CFP doesn't ignore a road win against a team that may have been ranked No. 15 at the time but is no longer ranked.

It's just not clear how those teams are rewarded or how much those wins have been devalued.

Arizona State, Auburn, Arkansas -- they were all top-20 teams in the Associated Press preseason poll and looked like they would make for a good nonconference win. When Michigan State beat Oregon on Sept. 12, the Ducks were No. 7. There are examples of losses that no longer look so damaging, and the committee set a precedent last season when it put Ohio State in its top four in spite of the Buckeyes' Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech.

The committee does factor in a team's progress throughout the season, even appearing to give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt this year.

"We think [Ohio State] is a team that hasn't played their best yet," College Football Playoff selection committee chair Jeff Long said last week. "We think that their best games are in front of them."

Oklahoma clearly looks like a better team than it did Oct. 10 when it lost to Texas -- but it still lost to Texas, which is currently 4-6.

"Obviously, a team can lose a game and still be in the playoff," said Bill Hancock, executive director of the CFP. "After all, three did it last year. We do not want to discuss specific teams, but it's important to remember that the committee looks in depth at every game, win or lose. And it looks at each team in context with the other teams that are in contention. The committee will consider each team's entire body of work. That's the best way to look at it."

Here's a look at how the perception of teams in contention for a New Year's Six bowl might have changed since Week 1:

Losses that look better

Northwestern 16, Stanford 6: The Cardinal were the victims of the annual September knee-jerk reaction, having been written off by many for their inept offense in a loss to unranked Northwestern. As it turns out, the selection committee considered that Stanford's "body clocks" kicked off at 9 a.m. PT, and Northwestern has gone on to be ranked by the committee.

Anyone who has played Iowa: It's true. The undefeated Hawkeyes were picked to finish fourth in the Big Ten's West Division. Losing to Iowa isn't bad -- it's now expected.

Losses that look worse

Arizona State 38, UCLA 23: This one looked bad to begin with, as UCLA was No. 7 and lost at home to the unranked Sun Devils, now a five-loss team. It continues to haunt the Bruins even though they're still in the mix to win the Pac-12 South.

South Carolina 17, UNC 13: The Tar Heels blew a fourth-quarter lead, and South Carolina walked out with some hope, but since then, coach Steve Spurrier has resigned and the Gamecocks have sunk to 3-7. UNC and Vandy are South Carolina's only Power 5 wins.

Ole Miss 43, Alabama 37: As good as Alabama has looked, this one can't be erased from its résumé. Ole Miss has since lost to Memphis and Arkansas.

Wins that look better

Notre Dame 41, Navy 24: The Midshipmen weren't ranked at the time, but they're now one of the top contenders in the American's West Division, trailing only undefeated Houston -- one of the committee's Top 25 teams.

Iowa 40, Northwestern 10: This has turned out to be one of the Hawkeyes' signature wins. Northwestern has won three straight since that game and crept back into the committee's Top 25.

Wins that look worse

Notre Dame 30, Georgia Tech 22: This seemed like such a big matchup at the time -- the Jackets were ranked No. 14 and 2-0 -- but Georgia Tech has come unraveled, losing seven of its past eight games.

Alabama 41, Texas A&M 23: The Aggies were ranked No. 9 at the time but now have three losses, including one to Auburn. Speaking of Auburn ...

LSU 45, Auburn 21: Auburn was No. 18 in the AP at the time, and LSU had opened its season with back-to-back wins against ranked opponents. But Auburn has been arguably the biggest disappointment of the season, falling to 5-5.

^ Back to Top ^