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BIG TEN Locks: Maryland, Iowa
Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Purdue
Work left to do: Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin The theory of bubble relativity (see Friday's introduction) applies to Maryland. The Terps may not own the type of eye-popping, top-heavy team sheet we typically see from early-February locks; Saturday's 72-61 win over Purdue was their third top-50 win of the season, and their so-so nonconference schedule and lack of marquee road wins are worth noting. Relative to most of the team sheets out there, however, Maryland's is downright pristine. But here's the biggest reason we're locking Maryland today: Really good basketball teams tend to make the NCAA tournament. Maryland is really good. Sometimes it is that simple. Michigan State [20-4 (7-4), RPI: 16, SOS: 79]
Speaking of top-heavy team sheets, how about Michigan State? Saturday's 89-73 win on rival Michigan's home floor marked the Spartans' seventh top-100 win of the season (the Wolverines fall just outside the top 50 at No. 56). That's impressive. Even more so: MSU has four top-30 wins. Among them are Kansas (neutral) along with Louisville, Maryland and Florida at home. A home loss to Nebraska and the 7-4 conference record are the only blemishes here. A win at Purdue Tuesday will make the Spartans the next Big Ten lock, and with a bullet. But they'll get there eventually all the same. Purdue [19-5 (7-4), RPI: 25, SOS: 75]
The Boilermakers may be kicking themselves for Saturday's outcome, which saw them squander a three-point halftime lead, and an excellent defensive performance, en route to a 72-61 loss at Maryland. The problem? Shooting. As Matt Painter said after the game, the Terrapins eventually resolved to stop A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas from the constant beating they were administering in the Maryland paint -- leaving Purdue's perimeter with loads of open looks. They simply didn't fall. The Boilermakers guard, rebound and utilize one of the most imposing frontcourts in the country. But if they can't make shots, they're beatable. Indiana [19-5 (9-2), RPI: 54, SOS: 178]
Give Penn State, and specifically coach Pat Chambers, credit. Saturday night's visit from Indiana came just four days after the Hoosiers put a Globetrotters-esque 28-0 run on Michigan in Ann Arbor, en route to a 80-67 road victory that basically established IU's ceiling after an 8-1 Big Ten start against the softest parts of their schedule. The Nittany Lions beat that team -- holding IU to less than a point per trip -- with not only good defense but some really smart and opportunistic stuff down the stretch. (At one point late, Chambers' team executed inside-out screens against both of the guards at the top of IU's 2-3 zone. It didn't result in a bucket, but it was something you don't see every day.) The upshot for IU isn't great; the Nittany Lions are a sub-100 RPI team, after all, and Indiana's RPI and schedule numbers still somewhat undersell how well they've played since January. But the opportunity to rebound with a win over Iowa on Thursday night at home, where the Hoosiers remain unbeaten and where the crowd will be nuts, is at least a minor palliative. Michigan [17-7 (7-4), RPI: 56, SOS: 72]
This week represented a huge opportunity for Michigan to firm up its tourney shot. Instead, their consecutive home games against Indiana and Michigan State ended in double-digit blowouts, and suddenly the Wolverines don't feel so safe. A neutral-court win over Texas and that Jan. 12 home win over Maryland still look good, but those results represent 66.7 percent of the Wolverines' top-100 wins (the other: at NC State, which, meh) and 28.6 percent of their seven top-150 wins. If UM makes it three in a row at Minnesota Wednesday, trouble will have officially arrived. Wisconsin [14-9 (6-4), RPI: 60, SOS: 9]
As the clock wound down on Wisconsin's 79-68 win over Ohio State on Thursday, former UConn coach/current ESPN analyst Jim Calhoun, discussing the Badgers' bubble position, essentially said to forget whether the OSU win was marquee or not, because Wisconsin needs every win it can get. He was right. UW's five-game winning streak has included victories over Michigan State and Indiana; it has also included not-losses against Penn State, Illinois and the Buckeyes. When you're in this kind of spot -- smack dab on our early conception of the bubble -- any win or loss, whether obviously good or obviously bad or somewhere in the middle, can be the difference.
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