<
>

The biggest stat difference between the 2014 Ducks and the 2015 Ducks

It's shocking how similar the statistics are for the Oregon Ducks six games into the season when compared to the same point in 2014.

On paper, it's difficult to tell the two teams apart:

  • The 2015 Ducks have up 5.84 yards per play as opposed to 5.78 yards per play through six games in 2014.

  • The secondary, which has received much criticism for the big plays it has given up, has allowed 37 plays of 20-plus yards. A year ago, the more veteran secondary had allowed 32 plays of 20-plus yards at this point.

  • Last season after six games Oregon had tallied 18 sacks. This season they've accounted for 17.

  • Oregon's offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play this season as opposed 7.6 yards per yard a season ago (a drop of .9 yards per play isn't terrible considering it lost the Heisman winner).

  • Through six games a year ago -- even with said Heisman winner -- the Ducks had recorded 12 three-and-outs. They have the same number so far this year.

One of the bigger offensive differences this season comes in the rate at which Oregon has moved the chains and the rate at which the Ducks have scored.

The Ducks' third down percentage has dropped from 49.3 percentage (through six games in 2014) to 35.7 percentage in 2015. A season ago at this point Oregon was scoring one touchdown for every 12 plays. This season it is scoring one touchdown for every 15 plays.

That's certainly not good, but it doesn't explain the seriousness of the struggles.

Realistically, there's not one statistic that's going to explain away all of Oregon's problems. But there is one that does explain a lot of them and shows -- quite drastically -- the difference between the two teams: the turnover margin.

This is a category that Oregon has grown accustomed to winning by huge margins. By the end of last season the Ducks had accounted for 23 fewer turnovers (best margin nationally) than they had forced their opponents into. And they weren't just good at turning over their opponents, they were good at making the most out of these opportunities.

In 2014, the Ducks scored 164 points of turnovers while their opponents scored just 13 off the Ducks' mistakes.

For obvious reasons, many coaches point to this statistic as one of the biggest indicators between winning and losing. Right now, it's a good explanation as to why the Ducks are 3-3.

Through six games the Ducks are winning the turnover battle right row at plus-2 (meaning, they've had two fewer turnovers than their opponents). A year ago, after six games the Ducks were at plus-9.

In 2014 Oregon had scored 65 points off those turnovers and hadn't allowed opponents to score off their turnovers, giving them a huge boost during those first six games.

This season, the Ducks have scored 52 points off opponent turnovers, but they've also allowed opponents to score 42 points off their own, giving them just a +10 point margin in turnover points scored.

This season Oregon has turned the ball over twice in the red zone, while its opponents haven't at all. A year ago at this time, the Ducks hadn't turned the ball over at all in the red zone while opponents had twice.

That's a huge swing, one that's very pronounced on paper and one that severely separates last season's team from this season's team