Atlanta Braves right-hander Shelby Miller starts Tuesday and he's hoping to end an 18-start streak in which he's gone 0-10 despite a 3.24 ERA. Back in the day, many would have spouted nonsense about how "he just doesn't know how to win." We know better now, of course. Miller has pitched very well, but he's been unlucky, thanks to atrocious run support. As a comparison, since Miller's winless stretch started on May 23, Alfredo Simon of the Tigers has the worst ERA among qualified starters at 6.67 -- and he's gone 6-7. Colby Lewis has a 4.85 ERA since May 23 -- and he's won 10 games.
That's why Miller tops our list of unluckiest players of 2015. Here are some players stymied by various degrees of bad luck.
Scott Kazmir, Oakland A's-Houston Astros
Kazmir ranks fourth in the AL with a 2.45 ERA and yet has just seven wins. Kazmir is one of five starters in the majors who's had three starts where he allowed no runs and finished with a no-decision. That's bad enough, but get this: Kazmir hasn't won a game all season when he allowed more than one run. He's 0-9 in those starts, which includes eight starts when he's allowed two or three runs.
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
Davis is third in the American League with 35 home runs, four behind leader Nelson Cruz. But he's been robbed of four more homers, which could cost him the home run title. Getting robbed four times in a season is certainly unusual; last year, for example, Rene Rivera was the only hitter to get robbed even twice. The only other player to get robbed twice in 2015 is Wilmer Flores of the Mets. For the record, the four players who robbed Davis are: Avisail Garcia (July 4), J.B. Shuck (July 5), J.D. Martinez (July 17), Billy Burns (Aug. 18).
Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
In what is becoming the year of the no-hitter, we've also had many near no-hitters. On consecutive starts on June 19 and then June 24, Estrada took no-hitters into the eighth inning. On June 19, he lost his no-hit bid with zero outs in the eighth on a blooper to left. In his next start, he lost a perfect game on an infield single with one out in the eighth. Only one other pitcher has had two no-hit bids of seven-plus innings this season: Yep, Shelby Miller, who lost one with two outs in the ninth.
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
Pujols has belted 34 home runs but he's hitting a career-low .247, thanks in part to a .220 batting average on balls in play -- the second-lowest in the majors among qualified hitters, ahead of only Luis Valbuena's .219 mark. How much of this is bad luck? The more fly balls you hit -- and therefore the fewer line drives and ground balls -- the lower your batting average on balls in play (BABIP) dips, especially when you're hitting a lot of home runs. As it turns out, Pujols' hit-type profile isn't much different than what it's been since 2009, according to data from ESPN Stats & Information:
2009-2014: 41.4% ground balls, 40.2% fly ball, 17.6% line drive
2015: 40.5% ground ball, 39.5% fly ball, 18.6% line drive
This doesn't mean it's all bad luck: Maybe his grounders and line drives aren't being hit quite as hard as in the past, and shifts cost him some hits as well, plus his BABIPs have always been lower with the Angels than with the Cardinals. But it does appear as if he's hit into some bad luck this season.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
The reigning Cy Young winner is 8-13 with a 3.41 ERA -- after posting a 2.44 ERA last year. So just having a worse season? Not necessarily. His FIP -- fielding independent pitching -- was 2.35 a year ago and is still an excellent 2.86 in 2015. In Kluber's case, while he's given up a few more home runs in 2015, his opponents' line is nearly identical:
2014: .233/.279/.345
2015: .229/.273/.361
The big difference? His left-on-base percentage is 71.1 percent this year compared to 78.6 percent in 2014. If you want, you can argue he's just not getting batters out with runners in scoring position, but it's probably bad luck as much as anything.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year, Kershaw made just 27 starts and pitched 198 innings but still won Cy Young and MVP honors after going 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA. I thought both awards were justified, but winning 21 of those 27 starts certainly helped. This year, he's made 26 starts and pitched 185 innings, and he owns a slightly higher 2.24 ERA -- but has just 11 wins. His bad luck is exemplified by two starts made recently: On Aug. 18, he allowed one run in seven innings and left with a 4-1 lead, only to see the bullpen blow the lead (and the game); on Aug. 23, he left with a 2-1 lead after eight innings, only to once again see the bullpen blow the game. Lesson: Maybe you have to go nine, Clayton.
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
The National League MVP debate is going to be a fun one, especially if the Nationals miss the postseason. Harper's bust-out season has come right when most of his teammates have either been injured or went into the tank. So while he's been the consensus best player in the NL, he's not guaranteed to walk away with the hardware.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
One double on the chalk from becoming just the sixth pitcher to throw three no-hitters.
Billy Burns, Oakland Athletics