Drew Smyly threw a 91 mph fastball pretty much down the middle of the plate and Miguel Sano did not miss, unleashing a swing of ferocious power, sending the ball up, up and ... off the catwalk that hangs over the field in left-center at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Are you kidding? The catwalk? Why does a major league ballpark have a catwalk?
It would have been a monster blast. Instead, Sano had to settle for a double, and the quirky play ended up costing the Minnesota Twins a run and maybe a win because Sano was left stranded at second base and the Twins eventually fell 5-4 to the Tampa Bay Rays to see their six-game winning streak snapped.
How far would the ball have gone? Sano said farther than his 447-foot home run in Toronto.
Suzuki on Sano catwalk shot: "That one was mashed. That probably would have been one of the farthest homers you've seen here, for sure."
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) August 28, 2015Miguel Sano did WHAT
— Brandon Warne (@Brandon_Warne) August 27, 2015Miguel Sano's double left the bat at 111 mph and was estimated to have gone 409 feet, per Statcast. But hit the catwalk so it was a double.
— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) August 28, 2015ESPN Stats & Info estimated the ball would have traveled 425 feet if it hadn't hit the catwalk. I don't know, but I'll take the over.
The Twins are one of the feel-good stories of 2015, of course. Pretty much all of us so-called experts predicted them to finish last in the American League Central and a good bet to lose about 90 games. Here they are, however, just a half-game behind the Rangers for the second wild card after Thursday, and Sano has been a huge reason they're still in the race.
After bashing 35 home runs in the minors in 2013, Sano was poised to reach the majors last season but injured his elbow in spring training, underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. The lost year came when he was 21, a crucial age for development. How much would it affect the young slugger? He began the season in Double-A, hit 15 home runs in 66 games there and was called up to the majors on July 2. All he's done in The Show is hit .289/.394/.584. When I talked to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier at the All-Star Game, Sano had been up only about 10 days but Dozier already was raving about his plate discipline and approach.
In fact, since his call-up, Sano ranks 12th in the majors in wOBA, is seventh in walk rate, ninth in isolated power, is tied for 10th with his 12 home runs and is eighth in RBIs. What a first 47 games in the majors.
The scary thing is that Sano is far from polished. He's also struck out 71 times, the most of any hitter in that span, so his .289 batting average is being held up by an insanely high .424 average on balls in play. Even as hard as he hits the ball, that's not sustainable, so if he's going to remain a .289 hitter he's going to have cut down on the swing-and-misses.
Anyway, like we did with Kyle Schwarber, let's take a look at Sano's 12 home runs to see what kind of pitches he's done damage with:
1. July 7: 1-1, 97 mph fastball off Kevin Gausman, 383 feet to left-center.
2. July 12: 0-2, 81 mph slider off Shane Greene, 382 feet to left-center.
3. July 24: 3-2, 87 mph slider off Michael Pineda, 419 feet to center field.
4. July 31: 1-0, 90 mph splitter off Taijuan Walker, 371 feet to left-center.
5. Aug. 5: 3-2, 94 mph fastball off Drew Hutchison, 447 feet to left-center.
6. Aug. 12: 1-1, 90 mph fastball off Nick Martinez, 429 feet to left-center.
7. Aug. 12: 3-2, 82 mph changeup off Nick Martinez, 402 feet to left field.
8. Aug. 17: 0-0, 92 mph fastball off Caleb Cotham, 388 feet to left field.
9. Aug. 18: 0-0, 83 mph changeup off CC Sabathia, 381 feet to left field.
10. Aug. 20: 0-0, 90 mph fastball off Miguel Gonzalez, 370 feet to left-center.
11. Aug. 23: 0-0, 95 mph fastball off Kevin Gausman, 398 feet to right-center.
12. Aug. 25: 3-2, 92 mph fastball off Nate Karns, 416 feet to center field.
From a visual standpoint, here are the pitch locations:
Three things that stand out to me: (1) In comparison to Schwarber, who had feasted primarily on fastballs on his home runs, Sano has a hit a variety of pitches; (2) note the location of the pitches -- almost all in the middle vertical part of the strike zone, with four of his home runs coming on middle-in pitches and four more on middle-middle; and (3) note that four of his past five home runs came on first pitches. Just speculating here, but as word started getting around about Sano's patience, it would be logical for pitchers to throw first-pitch fastballs to get ahead, and Sano has adjusted by swinging earlier in the count.
Sano looks like your classic power hitter who loves to pull the ball. As Dozier alluded to, the plate discipline has been impressive with a 23 percent chase rate on non-strikes, well below the MLB average of 29 percent. His growth is all tied into that miss rate: At 39.5 percent, he'd be leading the majors, higher than Chris Carter.
Is Sano a serious Rookie of the Year candidate, even in a partial season? The AL crop of rookies isn't as strong as in the NL, but it does appear Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros has separated himself:
Correa: 3.0 WAR
Francisco Lindor: 2.4 WAR
Devon Travis: 2.4 WAR
Billy Burns: 2.1 WAR
Roberto Osuna: 2.0 WAR
Nathan Karns: 1.9 WAR
Lance McCullers: 1.8 WAR
Sano: 1.7 WAR
Eddie Rosario: 1.7 WAR
Aaron Sanchez: 1.7 WAR
Even if Sano continues to mash, he'll face an uphill battle to beat out Correa, especially since Sano carries no defensive value, having started just nine games at third and the rest at DH. And if he keeps hitting catwalks, that won't help either.