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Why Kentucky will -- or won't -- make a bowl game

It’s Year 3 under Mark Stoops. The program is finishing up a $120 million renovation of Commonwealth Stadium that will be ready for the beginning of the season, and the fans are ready to see results. It’s time for Kentucky football to take the next step.

The Wildcats were on the verge of a breakout season last year, but losing their last six games cost them a chance at a bowl game and made Stoops’ seat a little warmer for 2015. It might be bowl game or else for the third-year coach.

Here's a look back at the rest of this series from the SEC.

Why Kentucky will make a bowl game

  • Quarterback competition: At most schools, a quarterback competition isn’t necessarily a good thing. It means you don’t have a guy you trust to lead the offense. The opposite is true at Kentucky, where the Wildcats have two players -- Patrick Towles and Drew Barker -- who are more than capable of running the show. Towles started every game last season and looked great at times. He was a big reason why they jumped out to a 5-1 start. But Barker, a four-star recruit who redshirted last season, has the talent and pedigree to push Towles. Regardless of who wins the job, Kentucky should be in good shape at the quarterback position.

  • Emerging playmakers: With two capable quarterbacks and four starters returning on the offensive line, the Kentucky offense should be pretty good this fall. It just needs a couple of playmakers to step up, and Stanley "Boom" Williams and Ryan Timmons are the perfect candidates. Williams came on late last season and wound up leading the team in rushing with 486 yards on 74 carries. Timmons, the team’s leading receiver, showed flashes of brilliance last season, but lacked consistency. If those two can put it together -- and new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson should help with that -- the Wildcats will be in good shape.

  • Manageable schedule: No SEC schedule is manageable, but Kentucky needs just six wins to make a bowl game. Assuming the Wildcats take care of business against Louisiana-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky and Charlotte at home, that leaves three wins left to secure. Florida has had Kentucky’s number for quite some time, but the game is at home and the Wildcats nearly pulled the upset last season. Even some of the road games -- South Carolina, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt -- at least seem winnable for this team. It might come down to Louisville and the Governor’s Cup just like it did a year ago, and if so, the game is in Lexington.

Why Kentucky won’t make a bowl game

  • No Dupree or Smith: Kentucky’s defense was supposed to be one of its strengths last season, but it finished No. 95 nationally in scoring defense, allowing 31.3 points per game. To make matters worse, last season's group lost its two best players -- Bud Dupree and Za'Darius Smith -- to the NFL. The coaches hope Jason Hatcher can fill the void left by Dupree, but replacing a player who had 12.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks is never easy. At this point, the Wildcats might be deeper on that side of the ball, but there’s no proof yet that they will be better. And they need to be better.

  • A losing culture: Last season's Kentucky team should have played in a bowl game. The talent was there. The support was there. Even the momentum was there early on. But a couple of losses midway through the season, and the wheels began to fall off. By the end, it was ugly to watch. Part of that was the culture. This is a program that has endured a lot of losing in recent years. There’s a reason the Wildcats haven’t been to a bowl game since the 2010 season. If this year’s team can’t break that streak, it won’t be due to a lack of talent. It will be a result of the culture.