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Roundtable: Can the South take it all?

Wednesday on the Pac-12 blog, our Ted Miller sort of maybe kind of hinted a little bit slightly that this was the year the South Division would overtake the North and finally win a Pac-12 championship for the first time since conference expansion. He didn’t come right out and say it – no doubt not wanting to spoil the grand announcement next month when he releases his preseason ballot at media days in Los Angeles.

Who shot J.R.? Is Jon Snow really dead? And how will Ted Miller vote? These are the questions America wants to know.

But for now, we’ll offer up a roundtable discussion and let some of the other Pac-12 reporters take a swing at the topic. Is this the year the Pac-12 South wins the conference title?

Chantel Jennings (@ChantelJennings): Do I believe the South is more talented than the North this season? Yes. Do I believe the South is deeper? Absolutely. Do I believe this is the season a South team wins the Pac-12 championship? Ehhh, maybe?

Let me clarify. I think they should. I just don’t know if they will. Because I think Oregon might have one more year of a Pac-12 championship up its sleeve. It doesn’t have Marcus Mariota, but it has so many of the complementary pieces from last season (pieces who are ready to step up and contribute more) that I think the Ducks have the best chance to get to the championship game the least maligned of any conference team.

With all the #Pac12AfterDark chaos that will surely ensue in the South, I think that southern depth that everyone is banking on could eventually come back to bite whichever team eventually represents that group in December. Don’t get me wrong; I think the South will be far more entertaining this season.

When it comes to the South, you’ll have nail-biters in nearly every game. So if we’re debating whether this is the “Year of the South” when it comes to excitement and good football, then yes, this is that year. If we’re deciding based on which team is left standing at the end of the day, then I’m just not confident that all this southern depth will eventually be anything other than the South beating the crap out of each other and serving up the least beaten-up team to the Ducks.

Kyle Bonagura (@BonaguraESPN): If there is a perception out there that the Pac-12 North has some sort of ownership over the conference, well, I guess we'll just have to let people believe what they want. Yes, North teams have won all four conference titles since Utah and Colorado arrived in 2011, but we're really just talking about Oregon and Stanford. Their dominance shouldn’t be used to prop up Cal, Oregon State and the Washington schools, which are a combined 52-92 in conference play since the divisions were implemented. (Only Washington, at 19-17, has a winning record during that span.)

The reality is there has been a good deal of parity. The North went 16-10 against the South in 2011 and 2012, the divisions both won 13 games against each other in 2013 and the South went 16-10 last year. Other than last year’s South, which had a strong case for subjective title of toughest division in college football with five ranked teams, there hasn’t been a significant disparity in difficulty, top to bottom.

Whether a team from the South can break through and win the conference title is a completely different discussion, but, again, the concept of crediting a division with the success of one team doesn’t make much sense. Ohio State proved it was the best team in college football last year, but if someone were to use that to make the case for the Big Ten being a better overall conference than the Pac-12 or SEC, it would be laughed at. Same thing here.

Kevin Gemmell (@Kevin_Gemmell): Having read the contributions from my esteemed colleagues, I think it’s fair to agree across the board that, at this point, the South is the deeper of the two divisions. Any problems with that? Didn’t think so. The question then becomes can one of those teams emerge from the Thunderdome that has become the South Division and actually challenge a Stanford or an Oregon?

Here’s the thing, though. Since conference expansion, the five teams we’ve been talking about in the South – Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, USC and Utah – are a combined 8-22 against Stanford and Oregon. Arizona is 2-5, ASU is 1-4, UCLA is 0-8, USC is 3-3 and Utah is 2-2, with both wins coming over Stanford. And unfortunately for the South, Arizona, the only team to beat Oregon in consecutive years (before losing in last year’s title game) misses the Ducks this season.

Chantel and Kyle both make strong points. Yes, the South will likely beat itself up again, and I can’t think of a more entertaining division in college football right now. And yes, Kyle’s Ohio State analogy is apt. But again, can any of those South teams have enough in the tank at the end of the year to handle Oregon or Stanford a second time? Oregon misses Arizona and UCLA. Stanford misses ASU and Utah – probably better news for Stanford there than for Utah. But since the expansion, Arizona has yet to beat Stanford, ASU has yet to beat Oregon and Utah is winless against the Ducks. Only USC has beaten both teams. And after a two-year hiatus, I know we’re all looking forward to that Nov. 21 showdown between USC and Oregon at Autzen.

And speaking of the Ducks, weren’t they supposed to come back to earth sans Darron Thomas – or at least have a transition year? I’m not saying Jeff Lockie or Vernon Adams are the answer. But the Ducks are a still a run-first football team that has rushed for more yards over the last four seasons than every team in the country except for Georgia Tech, Navy and Army. Stopping their ground attack will always be priority No. 1. And last I checked, the Ducks still have an enviable stable of backs.

Until one of those aforementioned five shows itself capable of surviving the grind of the season with enough to topple the North in the title game, then the road still goes through Eugene or Palo Alto.