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Josh Dobbs' passing, Arkansas run key factors in Vols-Hogs

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Is Arkansas or Tennessee having a worse start to the season? (1:25)

On College Football Live, ESPN's Trevor Matich and Paul Finebaum debate whether Arkansas or Tennessee is having the more disappointing start to their regular season. (1:25)

In August, Arkansas-Tennessee looked like one of the most important cross-divisional games in the first half of the SEC season. Both teams started the fall in the top 25 and both harbored hopes of making a huge leap in division play after closing 2014 with a flourish.

But here they sit, both unranked, with Arkansas (1-3, 0-1 SEC) traveling to face Tennessee (2-2, 0-1) on the heels of another gut-wrenching loss. Not that Butch Jones' Volunteers feel much better these days after blowing a second game -- Florida rallied from a 27-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 28-27 last week -- where victory looked to be nearly certain.

With help from ESPN's Stats & Information group, here are key factors to watch Saturday:

Josh Dobbs vs. Arkansas pass defense: Many expected a breakout season from Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs, but it simply hasn't happened yet. The Vols junior ranks 10th in the SEC (and 59th overall) in ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating, and no SEC quarterback with at least four starts has passed for fewer yards than Dobbs' 139.3 ypg. He is just 3-for-10 on passes that covered at least 20 yards in the air.

Perhaps that might change Saturday. Dobbs will be facing an Arkansas secondary that has been the SEC's worst thus far. The Razorbacks are last in the conference in pass defense (264 ypg), opponent QBR (75.3 adjusted QBR), 20-yard completions allowed (15) and opponent completion percentage (71.6). Only five FBS defenses have surrendered a higher completion percentage than Arkansas.

The Hogs faced pass-heavy offenses in the last two games -- losses to Texas Tech and Texas A&M -- so Dobbs' throwing will not represent the same challenge. But if Arkansas fails to tighten up its pass defense, Tennessee has decent enough receiving weapons to make the Razorbacks pay.

How will Arkansas' offense attack? Even after losing star running back Jonathan Williams prior to the season, it seemed clear that Arkansas would lean heavily on Alex Collins and the running game. The Razorbacks ran for 218 ypg last season, which ranked 24th nationally.

That hasn't been the case, however. Only 46.3 percent of Arkansas' yards came through the air last season, but it's up to 60.6 in 2015. The Razorbacks actually rank third in the SEC in passing offense (285.2 ypg) against eighth in rushing (186.2).

Senior quarterback Brandon Allen has mostly been solid (third in the SEC and 18th nationally with a 79.0 adjusted QBR) and Collins is still producing (third in the SEC with 125.5 rushing ypg), but Arkansas' overall running game is not what we have come to expect from a Bret Bielema team. The Razorbacks are in the middle of the conference standings with 5.0 yards per carry and are scoring nearly one rushing touchdown per game fewer (1.5 after averaging 2.4 in 2014) than they did a year ago, even with Collins and most of a stout offensive line returning.

The question then becomes how Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos will choose to attack a vulnerable Tennessee defense. The Vols have been OK against the run (eighth in the SEC, allowing 145.8 rushing ypg), but terrible against the pass (13th in the SEC and 87th nationally, allowing 248.2 ypg).

Allen's receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries to Keon Hatcher, Cody Hollister and Jared Cornelius, so the Hogs might need to revert to 2014 form and lean more heavily on the ground game.

Can Tennessee close? Let's assume Tennessee leads toward the end of this one. Can the Vols actually close out the win?

It's painful enough just to lose a game, but the way Tennessee lost to Oklahoma and Florida was gut-wrenching. The Vols led Oklahoma by 14 points near the midway point of the fourth quarter and were up by 13 points on Florida last week with five minutes to play. Those defeats represent two of the highest win probabilities (Tennessee had a 97 percent chance of defeating Oklahoma at one point and a 93.7 chance to beat Florida) of the season for teams that eventually lost.

Nebraska's last-second loss to BYU on a Hail Mary is No. 1 on the list, as the Cornhuskers had a 98.5 percent chance to win that game.

This season's collapses aside, series history favors Tennessee here. Arkansas won the teams' last meeting in 2011, but the Hogs have never won consecutive games against the Vols. Tennessee is 13-4 all-time against Arkansas and has won six in a row against the Hogs at Neyland Stadium dating to 1992.