Critics have been blathering on about the Oscars for months now, the first poll for next year's college football season has already come out, and anybody with a decent suit is rumored to be running for president in 2016. But this isn't Zeitgeist-pandering. The Triple Crown discussion really should begin. The dreaming has.
Several Triple Crown possibilities will race Saturday, most notably in the Holy Bull and the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The Kentucky Derby might be 3 1/2 months down the road, but peparations for it began long ago, and, of course, it's never too early in the year to dream about roses. Tom Durkin had it right: While accepting the Eclipse Award of Merit, he described horse racing as "an obsession fueled by dreams."
And at this point, based on five dreamers for every possibility, no matter how remote, somewhere close to 2,000 dreamers are out there fantasizing about how they might deftly smell the roses in May, how they'll exude class in the winner's circle, how they'll look as if they deserve to be there and how they'll sound so modest and smart during all those interviews. Most of all, though, they're dreaming about watching their horse charge down the stretch at Churchill Downs and they're wondering just how warm the glow of fate's smile might feel.
Yes, the dreaming has begun, and the vagaries are gathering. And so it's time for the annual Top 100 Potential Triple Crown Noisemakers.
Dortmund sits atop the long list, not because he's the most accomplished of the group or the fastest or the biggest, although he might be, but because of all the youngsters I've seen he appears to have the best chance of excelling ont he first Saturday in May. The list, in other words, is based more on potential than accomplishment.
And weighing more than 1,200 pounds, Dortmund is a Gargantuan package of potential; in terms of what you'd want from a possible Triple Crown noisemaker, he's also a complete package. He has traveled to Churchill Downs, he has raced beyond a mile and he has flashed considerable talent, proving he can run the turn effectively and sustain a drive.
The unbeaten winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Dortmund worked seven-eighths of a mile Wednesday at Santa Anita in 1:23.40. Accompanied by another talented 3-year-old, Lord Nelson, Dortmund spotted him two lengths as they broke away from the pole but finished on even terms.
"He had to work to catch him," said their Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, about the workout. "It was a good workout for Lord Nelson, too." Lord Nelson is aimed at the San Vicente on Feb. 1, and Dortmund will make his seasonal debut Feb. 7 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Baffert also has American Pharoah, the champion 2-year-old male of 2014, and Punctuate, another San Vicente possibility, among the top 20. American Pharoah missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile because of a minor foot problem, but he has resumed training and could return to competition in next month's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Could another Kentucky Derby winner emerge from Southern California? Two of the last three Derby winners - California Chrome and I'll Have Another - were based there, no doubt fueling many dreams, and some measure of confidence, among West Coast horsemen. The reasons for this recent success could be many, including chance and the sheer cyclical nature of things. But Santa Anita offers an outstanding series of stakes races for 3-year-olds, with progressive distances, and, of course, the quality, although possibly thinning, remains quite high. And whoever departs California as the West's top Triple Crown prospect will indeed be formidable.
"The racing is very competitive here," Baffert said about the young horses on the West Coast. "California is tough. The racing is fast. If a horse makes it here, he can make it anywhere in the world."
But this might be the most telling geographic indicator (and, granted, much more than geography is at work here) of Triple Crown success: Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners raced at Del Mar or Saratoga as a 2-year-old. (I'll Have Another raced at both racetracks.) That means they were ready to race in August and they were good enough to compete at one of the premiere meetings in the country. Nine of this season's top 20 raced last year at Saratoga or Del Mar (in August), including Frosted and Imperia, who both come from the stable of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
Frosted is to make his seasonal debut in the Holy Bull, where he could very well be the favorite based on how he concluded his juvenile campaign last November. On the day of the Remsen Stakes, the Aqueduct surface was, quite simply, unfair. Seven of the 10 Aqueduct winners that day led throughout; seven began from the trio of inside post positions; and all the winners raced close to the inner rail. What that meant for Frosted was that he had little chance. Starting from post position No. 13, he had to use his natural speed to avoid a wide journey around the first turn, but, still, he had to race three-to-four wide while stalking; and he nearly won, finishing just a half-length behind the front-running, rail-hugging Leave The Light On. It was an outstanding effort, and even if it didn't put him in the winner's circle it put him on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
Immediately after the Remsen, McLaughlin said, he aimed Frosted at the Holy Bull. And since then, the trainer said, the gray colt has progressed steadily with a series of good workouts and strong gallops.
"We feel like he's improving every day," McLaughlin said about Frosted. "He's training with more focus and purpose."
Imperia began his career on the turf at Saratoga largely because, McLaughlin said, the grass races gave the colt an opportunity to race longer distances. Imperia won the Pilgrim Stakes on the turf at Belmont and despite an eventful journey finished only three lengths back in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Eager to try the colt on the dirt, specifically Churchill Downs' dirt, McLaughlin sent Imperia to Louisville for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, where the son of Medaglia d'Oro finished a close second despite a wide trip. He'll make his seasonal debut next month, McLaughlin said, in either the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream or the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Ocean Knight is another colt in the McLaughlin stable that's fueling dreams. He won his debut in hand after a poweful rally, and he delivered that knockout punch in a six-furlong sprint, which hardly projects to be his best distance. The son of Curlin should improve significantly, his trainer said, with more distance. Ocean Knight will stretch out Jan. 31 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay.
It's the stuff of dreams, this quest of the Triple Crown; it's the essence of the sport, the soul of the obsession. And so let the discussion begin. This top 100 is a very subjective list, and it's based entirely on potential viewed through these eyes and then distilled, from an original group of more than 1,000 horses, into these opinions. This sport is all about opinions. If yours differs, that won't mean you're wrong or I'm wrong; it'll simply mean we have the basis for a friendly wager. Yes, racing is all about, as Mark Twain said, a difference of opinions, all of them held with a respectful awareness that in the end the horses themselves will either confirm or repudiate opinion with fact.
Of course, I also hope the list is to some degree informative and serves as an introduction to the Triple Crown season. I haven't included, I admit, many horses I respect and admire, some, like Night Prowler, because they're probably going to race exclusively on the turf or because they're compromised by injury or maybe because, like Cinco Charlie, they're certainly going to be sprinters and only sprinters. On the other hand, the list includes some turf horses and a few speedsters, all based on their potential for having an impact on the road to the Triple Crown and ultimately on sport's most famous piece of jewelry.
1. Dortmund
Record: 3-3-0-0
Earnings: $359,400
Sire: Big Brown
Trainer: Bob Baffert
A giant of a colt, Dortmund reminds many of another huge chestnut from the Bob Baffert barn that won three races as a juvenile: Point Given, who, of course, went on to win two-thirds of the Triple Crown in 2001. Could Dortmund be that good? It's always safe to say probably not. But Dortmund could indeed be very good. Blessed with an athleticism that belies his size, he's aimed at a Feb. 7 return in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.
2. Texas Red
Record: 5-2-1-1
Earnings: $1,192,300
Sire: Afleet Alex
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
A $17,000 yearling, Texas Red represents a great rags-to-riches, or synthetic track-to-dirt, story that's only amplified by the fraternal faithfulness of the Desormeaux brothers, jockey Kent and trainer Keith. Texas Red improved dramatically when he moved from Del Mar's synthetic surface to Santa Anita's dirt, and then he took another step forward while winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Because of the rapid pace and subsequent meltdown in the Juvenile, skeptics remain, but from here Texas Red looks like he's in the vanguard on the road to the Triple Crown.
3. American Pharoah
Record: 3-2-0-0
Earnings: $361,500
Sire: Pioneerof The Nile
Trainer: Bob Baffert
At 2, he was the most talented youngster of the group, and that talent, expressed in two major stakes victories, won him an Eclipse Award. But the talents and virtues that lead to championship success at 2 don't necessarily guarantee Triple Crown success at 3. What happens if he isn't able to control the pace? Will his speed take him the classic distance? And, of most importance, will he improve and develop, for none of these youngsters has yet reached a level of performance that will win the Derby? Foot issues forced him to miss the Breeders' Cup, but he has resumed training and could return to competition in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. His Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, said American Pharoah could be, if he stays sound, a very special horse.
4. Carpe Diem
Record: 3-2-1-0
Earnings: $709,800
Sire: Giant's Causeway
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
He has it all - looks, pedigree, talent and potential. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland by more than six lengths, he then ran second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In Florida to prepare for his return, he recently had his first published workout of the season, three-eighths in 37.40. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said he's planning to give Carpe Diem two starts before going to Churchill Downs.
5. Frosted
Record: 4-1-3-0
Earnings: $150,600
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
He rallied to finish second in a relatively slow Remsen last November. But he raced three-to-four wide over a surface that was profoundly biased. Seven of the 10 winners that day at Aqueduct led throughout, and they all raced on the inside paths. So his performance was much better than it might look, and his potential is intriguing, especially since the Remsen was the first two-turn effort of his career. He'll make his seasonal debut Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull Stakes.
6. Calculator
Record: 5-1-2-1
Earnings: $193,500
Sire: In Summation
Trainer: Peter Miller
Second to American Pharoah in both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner, he stepped forward to put himself in the Triple Crown vanguard with his performance in the Sham Stakes, where he raced wide throughout but won easily by more than four lengths. Still, because his pedigree is hardly classic, skepticism will accompany him along the road to Kentucky; his sire, In Summation, never won beyond seven-eighths of a mile. On the other hand, his broodmare sire, Alphabet Soup, won the Breeders' Cup Classic. A handsome gray colt, Calculator could return in the Robert Lewis and could very well be as good as any of these 3-year-olds up to 1 1/16 miles. The big question, the lengthy question, comes later.
7. Upstart
Record: 4-2-1-1
Earnings: $463,800
Sire: Flatter
Trainer: Richard Violette
Handsome and precocious, the New York-bred won his first two outings at Saratoga and then ran second in the Champagne. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he finished third, despite having a difficult trip and racing fairly close to a suicidal pace. He has elite talent, and his trainer, Richard Violette, said the colt has developed physically since the Breeders' Cup. The questions for him are the same as they are for many of these: How much better can he become, how much will he develop and how will he handle the classic distance? He'll make his seasonal debut Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes.
8. Blofeld
Record: 3-3-0-0
Earnings: $319,800
Sire: Quality Road
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
An outstanding talent, Blofeld won the Futurity at Belmont after running the final quarter-mile in about 23 seconds. Then, after momentarily checking, he moved through along the inside to win the Nashua Stakes in the mud at Aqueduct, beating El Kabeir by five lengths. A little behind schedule, he's in Florida preparing for his return.
9. El Kabeir
Record: 6-3-1-1
Earnings: $388,892
Sire: Scat Daddy
Trainer: John Terranova
Over a Churchill surface that wasn't especially kind to speed (the other winners in two-turn races rallied from far back), he led throughout to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, then he stalked a modest pace and drew clear with an explosive move to win the Jerome Stakes and that's how he begins his run-up to Triple Crown, on a roll of significant progress. Although athletic, as a 2-year-old he didn't appear to be as physically mature or as intimidating as some of these, and so he could have room for dramatic development and improvement. As a juvenile, he couldn't beat Blofeld or Daredevil or Upstart, but El Kabeir is moving in the right direction, and getting to the Kentucky Derby is all about development.
10. Imperia
Record: 4-1-2-0
Earnings: $183,404
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
He rallied five-wide to finish second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, his first start on dirt. This is a talented colt: He scored his maiden victory in the Pilgrim Stakes, and then he finished less than four lengths back in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf despite a nightmarish trip. In Florida, he recently had his first published workout of the year in preparation for his return next month in either the Fountain of Youth or the Risen Star Stakes.
11. Ocean Knight
Record: 1-1-0-0
Earnings: $36,000
Sire: Curlin
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Purchased for $320,000 as a 2-year-old, Ocean Knight made an auspicious debut in mid-December at Aqueduct. He rallied while five-wide, ran the final quarter-mile in 24.76 seconds and won in hand. By two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who didn't even race as a juvenile, Ocean Knight could improve significantly as a 3-year-old to become a major player. He'll make his stakes debut next week at Tampa Bay.
12. Conquest Bigluck E
Record: 2-2-0-0
Earnings: $61,200
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: Mark Casse
A big, beautiful chestnut, he rallied in the middle of the track to win an allowance race at Churchill Downs in October, but then illness prevented his return in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which had been the goal. He's training in Florida for his return, and his trainer, Mark Casse, said the colt acts as if "he'll run all day." Casse is patient and won't push, but Conquest Bigluck E just might be good enough to pull his connections to Kentucky.
13. Daredevil
Record: 3-2-0-0
Earnings: $345,000
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
He looked like a potential superstar in his first two starts, including the Champagne. In both, however, he raced over a wet track that he obviously relished. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile his superstar bubble burst when he faltered badly after chasing a rapid pace and racing wide. So how good is he? And how far will he go? Those are the huge questions he takes into the new season. He recently had his first published workout of 2015, a bullet three-eighths (36.53 seconds) in Florida in preparation for his return.
14. Itsaknockout
Record: 2-2-0-0
Earnings: $46,800
Sire: Lemon Drop Kid
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
By a Belmont Stakes winner, Itsaknockout looks like he could be a classic horse. In both his races, though, he has shown surprising speed, pressing a lively pace. For a horse with his two-turn pedigree to put himself in the race early behind a hot pace and then to finish well enough to win has encouraged his trainer, Todd Pletcher, to think highly of Itsaknockout and include the colt with the more advanced 3-year-olds in the barn. Itsaknockout will attempt to pass a major test in his next start, the Fountain of Youth.
15. Firing Line
Record: 3-1-2-0
Earnings: $144,800
Sire: Line Of David
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
He fought every step of the way in the Los Alamitos Futurity, first with Mr. Z and then with Dortmund, before losing in the final jump. It was a game effort for a colt that had only two prior sprints on his resume. He appears to be training sharply since then in preparation for his rematch with Dortmund in the Robert Lewis Stakes.
16. Ocho Ocho Ocho
Record: 3-3-0-0
Earnings: $693,600
Sire: Street Sense
Trainer: James Cassidy
A winner of two sprints at Santa Anita, Ocho Ocho Ocho took a significant step forward when he raced around two turns in the Delta Downs Jackpot. Challenged through the final quarter-mile, he won by a nose over highly regarded Mr. Z. The son of a Derby winner, Ocho Ocho Ocho has every reason to continue to improve.
17. Barbados
Record: 4-2-1-0
Earnings: $113,650
Sire: Speightstown
Trainer: Michael Tomlinson
After stalking a rapid pace, Barbados ran the final quarter-mile in 24.09 seconds to win the Spectacular Bid Stakes by three lengths. Having started his career on the turf at Kentucky Downs, he's unbeaten on dirt, a record that will be tested Saturday. He's entered in Gulfstream's Hutcheson Stakes.
18. Punctuate
Record: 1-1-0-0
Earnings: $33,600
Sire: Distorted Humor
Trainer: Bob Baffert
He rallied from far back to win his debut with a powerful rally. A son of Peppers Pride, the 19-for-19 embodiment of perfection, Punctuate is one of the more highly regarded youngsters in Bob Baffert's powerhouse stable. Punctuate recently impressed at Santa Anita, running down a workmate with little encouragement and completing five-eighths in 59.60 seconds. He could make the second start of his career in the San Vicente.
19. Ami's Flatter
Record: 2-1-1-0
Earnings: $54,733
Sire: Flatter
Trainer: Josie Carroll
The good-looking grandson of A.P. Indy made up some ground over a speed-favoring Gulfsteam Park surface while trying to run down a loose-on-the-lead speedster in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Beyond the wire, he galloped out with the winner. Ami's Flatter looks like he could improve around two turns.
20. Souper Colossal
Record: 4-3-0-0
Earnings: $117,000
Sire: War Front
Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr.
The Sapling winner went to California with an unblemished record, and then, to prepare for the Breeders' Cup, he sizzled through five-eights of a mile in a remarkable 57.40 seconds. In the Juvenile, he stumbled at the start but rushed up to grab the lead through rapid fractions only to fade in the stretch. He's a big talent, and if he can learn to control his speed he could become a major noisemaker on the road to the Triple Crown.
Also eligible
21. First Down
Sire: Street Sense
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
In his debut last September, he looked capable and precociously professional while defeating Frosted, who was a little green. It was a fast win. And then, in the mud, he finished fourth in the Nashua Stakes, an effort that might not have reflected his talent. His half-brother, Gold City, was a stakes winner last year in Dubai. First Down is a little behind the more accomplished youngsters, but could become a major noisemaker. He's to make his seasonal debut in Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Fla.
22. Competitive Edge
Sire: Super Saver
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A sensational maiden winner at Saratoga, he then took the Hopeful in flashy style. Injured (a hairline fracture) while preparing for the Champagne, Competitive Edge has had two published workouts in preparation for a return. He possesses conspicuous speed and talent, but preparing for a 1 1/4-mile race, or a 1 3/16-mile race, in May is a daunting task for even the best of horses who aren't returning from an injury.
23. Bluegrass Singer
Sire: Bluegrass Cat
Trainer: Marcus Vitali
The Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner will return Saturday at Gulfstream, but in which race? The speedy gray gelding is entered in both the Hutcheson Stakes and the Holy Bull.
24. Mr. Z
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Mr. Z looked like a clear winner of the recent Smarty Jones Stakes, but then, in the final furlong, he ducked out from jockey Jon Court's left-handed whip and had to hold on for third. He has run consistently well, but has won only once. He'll get another chance to find the winner's circle in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
25. Overcontrol
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A $725,000 yearling, he won his debut as the odds-on favorite in late December at Gulfstream, where on Saturday he'll make his second start. He could be a good one, but he might require a patient approach. He's a late foal, born on May 6.
26. Danzig Moon
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: Mark Casse
Still a maiden after two outings, he broke poorly and rallied five-wide to be second going a mile at Churchill Downs in October. It was a strong effort and suggested he could make some racket down the road. He's training in Florida for his return.
27. International Star
Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus
Trainer: Mike Maker
A hard-trying, reliable colt, he never has given a poor performance while racing over a variety of surfaces. He's a few lengths behind the divisional leaders at this point, but he's moving in the right direction. And his recent victory in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans suggests he has found a home on the dirt.
28. Decision Day
Sire: Macho Uno
Trainer: Josie Carroll
A finalist for a Sovereign Award as the outstanding juvenile in Canada, he won the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine. He has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces to this point, but he appears to have considerable potential. He'll get a major test in the Holy Bull.
29. Island Town
Sire: Hard Spun
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
An athletic gelding, he rallied to win at a mile at Churchill Downs, beating Danzig Moon. He hasn't been on a work tab, however, since November. 30. Classy Class Sire: Discreetly Mine Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin. A debut winner, he finished fourth in the Remsen at Aqueduct after racing against the inside bias. The effort was better than it might at first appear, and he probably deserves another shot in top company.
31. Lord Nelson
Sire: Pulpit
Trainer: Bob Baffert
A stakes winner sprinting, he ran fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after a troubled start. He recently worked in company with Dortmund and will return to competition in the San Vicente.
32. Danny Boy
Sire: Harlan's Holiday
Trainer: Dale Romans
A lovely gray colt, he was beaten only three lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf after a troubled trip, and in the Iroquois Stakes, his only start on dirt, he finished fourth after racing extremely wide. He could be better on dirt. A $260,000 yearling, he would become a serious noisemaker if he steps forward.
33. Bold Conquest
Sire: Curlin
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Second in the Iroquois Stakes and third in the Breeders' Futurity, Bold Conquest looks like the sort of colt that could improve as he matures. He's training at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
34. Materiality
Sire: Afleet Alex
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
He made an auspicious debut at Gulfstream, stalking a lively pace and then drawing clear to win by more than four lengths. He was fully extended, though, and didn't have much of a gallop-out. Still, pedigree suggests two turns shouldn't be a problem.
35. The Great War
Sire: War Front
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Before joining Ward's stable, he finished fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He recently fired a bullet five-furlong workout at Turfway, where he could make quite a ruckus in the run-up to the Triple Crown.
36. Nasa
Sire: Smarty Jones
Trainer: John Servis
After winning a minor, restricted stakes at Parx, the Pennsylvania-bred tried the tougher company of the Jerome and ran well, finishing second to El Kabeir. A relatively late foal - he was foaled on May 11 - he should continue to improve down the road. By they way, he's out of a Seattle Slew mare, meaning Nasa has an unbeaten Kentucky Derby winner on both sides of his pedigree, and, of course, he represents the same connections as the great Smarty Jones.
37. J S Bach
Sire: Tale of the Cat
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Second in his debut, he recently won while stretching out at Gulfstream Park. He won convincingly, but he enjoyed an easy, unchallenged lead. In other words, as with many of these, it's still hard to say how good he might be, but he potentially could make some noise in stakes company soon.
38. Blame Game
Sire: Blame
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
He won his debut sprinting in a rather modest clocking for the day, but his pedigree insists he won't be at his best until he stretches out and attempts much longer distances. He'll get a little more distance Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
39. I Spent It
Sire: Super Saver
Trainer: Tony Dutrow
Winner of the Saratoga Special and runner-up in the Hopeful, he hasn't been heard from since going to the sidelines after the Champagne. A $600,000 2-year-old purchase, he obviously has potential to play a significant role in the Triple Crown drama if he can return to renew his potential.
40. Far Right
Sire: Notional
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Third after a troubled trip in the Delta Jackpot, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park with a rail-hugging trip. It was another solid effort for a colt that never has run a poor race.
41. Far From Over
Sire: Blame
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
After winning his debut in New York despite racing somewhat greenly, he joined the Pletcher powerhouse stable in Florida. A $550,000 yearling, he obviously has talent and potential, but he's a late foal, May 9, and so could require a some time and patience to reach his potential.
42. Acceptance
Sire: Vronsky
Trainer: Donald Warren
A Cal-bred son of a turf sprinter, Acceptance easily won the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos. Sound familiar? Unbeaten in three races, all on dirt, Acceptance recently worked a mile at Santa Anita; he should be tough to beat in Saturday's California Cup Derby.
43. Alright Alright
Sire: Munnings
Trainer: Darrell Vienna
He defeated Firing Line in his debut and then finished second at Del Mar in the Bob Hope Stakes despite a wide trip. He's lightly raced, under the radar and talented. He could be a player on the road to the Derby, but his pedigree implies serious distance limitations. His sire, Munnings, never raced beyond seven-eighths of a mile; and Alright Alright's stakes-winning dam, Afare, never won beyond three-quarters of a mile.
44. Shook Up
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
The only filly among the potential noisemakers, she romped in New Orleans by more than 13 lengths for her initial score. She's more likely to be aimed at the Oaks, of course, but she could have sufficient talent to try the "boys." And, don't forget, Asmussen won the Preakness with a filly.
45. Leave The Light On
Sire: Horse Greeley
Trainer: Chad Brown
He won the Remsen when he was able to take advantage of the unusual circumstances - an inside speed bias - and he scored his maiden victory over a sloppy surface that didn't really offer a measure of talent. So how good is he? He's in Florida preparing to answer that question.
46. Conquest Hiosilver
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Mark Casse
He won his debut at Del Mar, defeating One Lucky Dane. Given the fact that he won in August, Conquest Hiosilver could take a major step forward when he returns. He's training in California.
47. Keen Ice
Sire: Curlin
Trainer: Dale Romans
When he rallied to finish third in the Remsen, he raced along the rail, which appeared to be the best part of the Aqueduct surface. Based on that, he looked like a plodder who might need blinkers. But he appears to be training sharply in Florida, where he'll have an opportunity to step forward in the Holy Bull.
48. Dom The Bomb
Sire: Bring The Heat
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
He won a couple of Illinois-bred stakes as a 2-year-old, and has been firing bullets in the mornings at Tampa Bay to prepare for seasonal debut. How good is he? The answer could come as early as Saturday. He's entered in both the Hutcheson and Holy Bull.
49. Bayerd
Sire: Speightstown
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
The winner of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park in Oklahoma City, he ran second in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, again at a mile. He might not want to go much farther.
50. Bolo
Sire: Temple City
Trainer: Carla Gaines
A strikingly handsome black colt who easily won the Eddie Logan Stakes, Bolo never has raced on dirt. His dirt workouts look great on paper, but they don't stand up to the eyeball test. On Monday, he worked a bullet six furlongs (1:12.60) on the main track at Santa Anita, but he was fully extended to get by a workmate and his action was high, suggestive of a turf horse. He's nominated to the Santa Anita Derby, but he could be better suited for synthetics or turf.
51. Conquest Typhoon
Sire: Stormy Atlantic
Trainer: Mark Casse
A finalist for a Sovereign Award as Canada's outstanding juvenile, he'd be higher but he's also eligible for the Queen's Plate and likely to be aimed in that direction.
52. Frammento
Sire: Midshipman
Trainer: Nick Zito
He has improved steadily, and his Hall of Fame trainer, Nick Zito, thinks enough of Frammento to enter him in the Holy Bull.
53. Blame Jim
Sire: Sharp Humor
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
He won his debut at Saratoga back in July, defeating highly regarded Bold Conquest, and a month later was entered in a stakes, but scratched. A quick gelding, Blame Jim has had six workouts in Florida as he prepares to return to competition.
54. Catalina Red
Sire: Munnings
Trainer: Chad Stewart
The talented Florida-bred won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay and could continue to make noise there in the Sam F. Davis on Jan. 31. Beyond that, though, his noisemaking potential has distance limitations.
55. Tiznow R J
Sire: Tiznow
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
After a romping 13-length victory, he ran third in the recent Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Extremely large and leggy, he has been slow to change strides in the stretch; in other words, he's still learning and could make significant improvement in the coming months.
56. Eagle
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: Neil Howard
He rallied to finish third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but showed little in the recent Lecomte. He'll get another chance in next month's Risen Star in New Orleans.
57. Recount
Sire: Limehouse
Trainer: James DiVito
He has won two races on a synthetic surface in his brief career, including the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Can he transfer that synthetic form to the dirt, and will he be able to stretch out effectively? Those are the big questions he'll face as 3-year-old. He hasn't been heard from since December, but he's nominated to stakes in Florida.
58. Bad Read Sanchez
Sire: Warrior's Reward
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
He won his debut by 10 lengths at Santa Anita and finished third in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. He appears to be training well for his return at Santa Anita, possibly in the San Vicente
59. Another Lemon Drop
Sire: Lemon Drop Kid
Trainer: Philip Bauer
He finished fourth, five lengths back after a good trip, in the Lecomte Stakes, but he's a May foal and could improve down the road.
60. My Johnny Be Good
Sire: Colonel John
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Never worse than third, he appears to be improving. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a 14-length victory at Tampa Bay. The Sam F. Davis could be a good place for him to make his seasonal debut.
61. Daddy D T
Sire: Scat Daddy
Trainer: John Sadler
He finished his juvenile campaign with a couple of starts on turf, but he ran fifth in the FrontRunner despite some trouble. A versatile and capable sort, he's training at Santa Anita for his return.
62. Curlino
Sire: Curlin
Trainer: Mark Casse
A two-turn maiden winner at Churchill Downs, he ran about 11 lengths slower than El Kabeir in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes a race earlier. But that was only Curlino's third start and he won easily. He's training in Florida for his return.
63. Divining Rod
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour
After winning his debut impressively at Laurel, he moved to the turf. But look for him to go back to the dirt when he returns to competition in Florida. He could become a player.
64. Gorgeous Bird
Sire: Unbridled's Song
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
His second dam, Bird Town, won the Kentucky Oaks, and Gorgeous Bird looked very sharp winning in the second start of his career for connections that are known for their patience. He's very intriguing. A big effort in an allowance event Saturday at Gulfstream could put him on the road to the Triple Crown.
65. Rock Shandy
Sire: Lemon Drop Kid
Trainer: Peter Miller
In his first start on dirt, he ran second in the Sham Stakes. He was no threat to Calculator, but he's by a Belmont Stakes winner, and so Rock Shandy's pedigree implies improvement with longer distances.
66. Richard The Great
Sire: Distorted Humor
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
He won his first two races, but, more recently, he finished sixth after a nightmarish trip in a minor stakes. He could make some noise in Saturday's Hutcheson Stakes.
67. Stanford
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A $550,000 baby, he won his debut at Monmouth before disappointing in the Saratoga Special. He's to return in Saturday's Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
68. Bronze Star
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
He finished second to Punctuate and then, in his first two-turn outing, broke his maiden in a solid if unspectacular performance. A $500,000 yearling, he at this point has more potential than accomplishments.
69. Hashtag Bourbon
Sire: Super Saver
Trainer: Kellyn Gorder
A stakes winner at Mountaineer Park, he finished third in the Iroquois, but then his career veered into a ditch in the Breeders' Futurity, where he broke slowly, raced wide and finished far back. Preparing for his return, he has had two workouts at Tampa Bay.
70. One Lucky Dane
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: Bob Baffert
A nine-length maiden winner, he finished sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
71. Serbian Syclone
Sire: Wildcat Heir
Trainer: Peter Miller
A two-time sprint winner, he would seem to have serious distance limitations. But he's nominated to the Santa Anita Derby and could show up in the San Vicente.
72. Majestic Affair
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Chad Brown
The speedy gelding won the Capossela Stakes by nearly six lengths in a fast time for the day. By a sprinter, out of a mare, Blumin Beauty, who was a sprinter, Majestic Affair is probably a sprinter, too. But he has won at seven-eights of a mile and might be able to make some noise on the inner track at Aqueduct.
73. Astounding
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Wayne Catalano
After some head-turning workouts, Astounding flashed considerable potential in his debut, rallying to be second at Churchill. Since then, however, he has been scratched twice; and he hasn't been on a work tab since late November.
74. Ready For Rye
Sire: City Zip
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
A seven-length winner at Belmont, he ran second to Barbados in the Spectacular Bid Stakes. He's obviously talented, but his pedigree emphasizes speed, limiting his noisemaker potential.
75. Private Prospect
Sire: Discreet Cat
Trainer: Michael Campbell
A precocious colt, he had a terrific juvenile campaign, winning three races and finishing second in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. He ran fourth in his seasonal debut, in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but as these other 3-year-olds mature and develop he'll need to take a step forward if he's going to continue to compete in stakes, or he'll just have to find easier company.
76. Exodus
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Trainer: Larry Jones
After an eight-length maiden win at Fair Grounds, he'll return Saturday in a minor stakes at Sam Houston. He looks speedy and capable, but distance could be an issue. He's out of the outstanding sprinter Stop Traffic, who won eight stakes, including the Ballerina.
77. Royal Saint
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
A $100,000 yearling, he won his debut by more than six lengths in August. A fast race on the clock, it was auspicious and suggested he could step into stakes company as a 3-year-old. Royal Saint is training in New Orleans for his return.
78. Gold Shield
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Trainer: Claude "Shug" McGaughey
A million-dollar yearling whose dam, Dream Supreme, was a sensational sprinter, winning the Test and the Princess Rooney on her way to earning more than $1 million, Gold Shield is a half-brother to three stakes winners. He appears to be training well in Florida.
79. March
Sire: Blame
Trainer: Chad Brown
After finishing second in a sprint, he recently scored a maiden victory at Aqueduct at a mile and 70 yards, and his pedigree suggests he could continue to improve.
80. Combat Diver
Sire: Line Of David
Trainer: Gary Contessa
After a maiden victory at 1 1/6 miles, he ran poorly in the Remsen, one of many horses that might have been compromised by the bias. A half-brother to the turf stakes winner Joy, he could make some noise in New York.
81. High Noon Rider
Sire: Distorted Humor
Trainer: George Weaver
After two tries on the turf, he moved forward in his first start on dirt and then ran third in the Springboard Mile. In an aggressive move, he'll step into graded stakes company Saturday, taking on Frosted, Upstart and First Down in the Holy Bull Stakes.
82. War Story
Sire: Northern Afleet
Trainer: Tom Amoss
A winner of his first two outings, he finished second in a game effort while making his stakes debut in the recent Lecomte.
83. Mawthooq
Sire: Distorted Humor
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
A $850,000 yearling who scored his maiden win in flashy style by more than 10 lengths at Aqueduct, he disappointed in the Mucho Macho Man, getting burned on a rapid pace and finishing distantly third. He deserves another chance.
84. Madefromlucky
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: John Mazza
He chased some good ones early in his career and then found the winner's circle when he stretched out at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests he could continue to improve as the distances get loner.
85. Skill Not Luck
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: Chad Brown
A $320,000 purchase, he has won consecutive races since stretching out from a debut sprint. He's training in New York, where he could make some noise at Aqueduct.
86. Cyrus Alexander
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
A $1.7 million yearling who's a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Cyrus Alexander has been favored in all three of his races, with third and two seconds. But he appears to be improving and shouldn't remain a maiden long.
87. Bridget's Big Luvy
Sire: Tiz Wonderful
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
He flashed speed in his debut and faded, he stumbled at the start of his second outing and then he rallied to win despite a wide trip. He's figuring things out as he returns Saturday in the Hutcheson.
88. A Lot
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Bill Mott
He scored his maiden win on the turf and recently finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes, also on grass. A $410,000 yearling, he has a bright future, but it's probably on the turf.
89. Tapitsphere
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
A debut winner in June, he finished fourth in the Sapling two months later to conclude his juvenile campaign. A handsome chestnut colt, he has had a couple of published workouts as he prepares for a return to competition.
90. Cross The Line
Sire: Line of David
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
He seems to be improving. He won the recent California Derby at Golden Gate, where he could continue to make some noise.
91. Bow Tie Boss
Sire: Candy Ride
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
In his debut, he ran second to Daredevil. It was a rapid race, and Bow Tie Boss had a troubled start; in other words, he flashed considerable potential. But he hasn't been on a worktab since late September.
92. Hard To Port
Sire: Afleet Alex
Trainer: Bill Mott
A winner of consecutive turf races, the latest in a dead heat, where he circled the field, he has a pedigree that suggests he might be able to transition to dirt, where he has had some good workouts.
93. Chief Kitten
Sire: Kitten's Joy
Trainer: Chad Brown
He finished with a rush to take the Pulpit Stakes and could make some noise on the turf or on a synthetic surface, possibly at Turfway.
94. Hebbronville
Sire: Majesticperfection
Trainer: Lynn Whiting
Since he ran second in Belmont's Futurity, little has gone right for him. In the Nashua, he got knocked around leaving the gate, was eased and came out of the race with a bloody laceration. In the recent Smarty Jones, he broke slowly and showed little. But he's in the hands of a terrific horseman who could get him back on track.
95. Old Mountain Lane
Sire: War Front
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
The $520,000 yearlings is still a maiden, but he has been heavily bet in both his races, most recently finishing second to highly regarded Itsaknockout.
96. Aldrin
Sire: Malibu Moon
Trainer: Chad Brown
A million-dollar baby whose dam is a half-sister to Tapit, he has chased Competitive Edge and Frosted in maiden races. At this point, though, Aldrin is a handsome package of unproven potential.
97. Lucky Player
Sire: Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Since winning the Iroquois Stakes, he has done little in three outings, most recently finishing eighth in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
98. Runhappy
Sire: Super Saver
Trainer: Laura Wohlers
A romping debut winner at Turfway despite racing greenly, he had a rough trip in the Smarty Jones, getting bumped at the break, rushing up to grab the lead and then tiring badly. He might be a sprinter, he might be too green and he might have to return to a synthetic surface, but he deserves another chance to show his talent against good company.
99. Hottap
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
A handsome gray colt who trains like a good horse in the mornings, he has yet to deliver on his potential.
100. Tale of Verve
Sire: Tale of Ekati
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
He has looked good in the mornings, but has yet to show much talent in the afternoon. His trainer, who has saddled the last two Kentucky Derby runners-up, likes him.