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With the removal of Jon Jones from UFC 187, and even the UFC entirely for the foreseeable future, the betting lines for the Light Heavyweight division just got very interesting. That's because Jones was a dominant champion who cleared out the division, averaging more than a 4-to-1 betting favorite during his title reign. With the title now vacant, two elite contenders will face off in what will likely be the closest matchup we've seen in a while for light heavyweight gold. And the market agrees. On a card with steep betting lines across the board, only the main event has less than 2-to-1 odds, which the market has kept at almost a pick 'em. A refreshing change from some of the title fight squash matches of recent years. Outside the main event, betting lines aren't so even, so the question will be whether any underdogs have value, or if favorite-parlays will be the theme of the night. There are also the round totals to consider given that the card is loaded with finishers. So let's look closer at the top three fights on the card, including some totals and prop plays that might have some value. No. 3 Donald Cerrone (3) (minus-500) vs John Makdessi (plus-400)
Cerrone had a tough matchup planned for UFC 187 against No. 2 Lightweight contender Khabib Nurmagomedov and now faces a short-notice injury replacement John Makdessi which has flipped the lines. Cerrone began as a -305 favorite, the biggest favorite anyone has been against Makdessi, and yet the lines have climbed quickly for Cerrone to five-to-one levels. Cerrone has certainly faced and defeated stiffer competition than Makdessi, and his size advantage will also play a role in helping "Cowboy" control the cage and win points round-to-round. But Cerrone's one key weakness is important here: his striking defense. Generally, Cerrone eats punches more than he lands them. That's fine thanks to Cerrone's very high Knockdown Rate, but against an evasive and precise counter-striker like Makdessi, it means he could be walking into something nasty.
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