David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Make-or-break HOF election for Jeff Bagwell

On Tuesday, I suspect we'll hear that Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Craig Biggio and John Smoltz have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Aside from those four, however, this election may prove most critical for Jeff Bagwell. I've written about Bagwell's Hall of Fame case before, so I won't rehash all the numbers and arguments. Let's look at voting trends and focus on Bagwell's odds of eventually getting elected.

This is his fifth year on the ballot. In his first three years, he made good progress, increasing from 41.7 percent to 56 percent to 59.6 percent. That put him a direct path to the 75 percent total needed for enshrinement. Many players eventually elected by the Baseball Writers Association were under 60 percent after three years on the ballot. Jim Rice was at 37 percent. Gary Carter was at 49 percent. Andre Dawson was at 50 percent. Duke Snider, the great Brooklyn Dodgers center fielder of the 1950s? He was at 21 percent. Bert Blyleven was at just 17 percent.

The good news for Bagwell: Every player who received at least 50 percent of the vote from the BBWAA -- and isn't still on the ballot -- has eventually been elected to Cooperstown, with the exception of Gil Hodges and Jack Morris. They weren't all elected by the BBWAA, but most of the recent guys were. (Joe Posnanski has a history of the 50 percenters here.)

The bad news for Bagwell: His vote total dropped last year to 54.3 percent. That was partially the result of a crowded ballot, a problem that still exists this year but will be slightly alleviated in future ballots. It could also suggest that the line has been drawn on Bagwell due to the allegations (without any evidence) that he used steroids. Bagwell's pool of voters may simply be extinguished and he'll continue to sit around 55 to 60 percent.

The other bad news is the rule change that now limits a player to 10 years on the ballot instead of 15. In rare cases, it takes years to develop Hall of Fame momentum. Rice got elected in his 15th year on the ballot, Blyleven on his 14th, Bruce Sutter on his 13th. Bagwell is already four years in and now has fewer years to regain back his lost momentum.

That's why getting back up to 60 percent is critical. Here are some recent non-first-ballot Hall of Famers with the year they first received 60 percent of the vote and how long until they got elected:

Jack Morris: 66.7 percent in 2012 (13th year on ballot), not elected

Barry Larkin: 62.1 percent in 2011 (2nd), elected in 2012

Roberto Alomar: 73.7 percent in 2010 (1st), elected in 2011

Bert Blyleven: 61.9 percent in 2008 (11th), elected in 2011

Goose Gossage: 64.6 percent in 2006 (7th), elected in 2008

Andre Dawson: 61.0 percent in 2006 (5th), elected in 2010

Jim Rice: 64.6 percent in 2006 (12th), elected in 2009

Bruce Sutter: 66.7 percent in 2005 (12th, elected in 2006

Ryne Sandberg: 61.1 percent in 2004 (2nd), elected in 2005

Gary Carter: 64.9 percent in 2001 (4th), elected in 2003

Tony Perez: 65.7 percent in 1996 (5th), elected in 2000

Leaving aside Alomar, who didn't get elected his first year because some voters only vote for inner-circle Hall of Famers on the first ballot, the average number of years from 60 percent to election has been 2.3, with a max of four (and excluding Morris). When you get to 60 percent, momentum seems to really ramp up, even more so than getting to 50 percent. I can't attempt to understand the collective psychology of the BBWAA here, but my prediction is if Bagwell gets to 60 percent he'll get elected in three years.

A few quick notes on some other guys on the ballot:

Mike Piazza: He's similar to Bagwell in that some don't vote for him due to steroids allegations, but his vote total actually increased last year, his second on the ballot, to 62.1 percent. I don't think he gets in this year, but he's a good candidate for 2016.

Tim Raines: He now has just three years left and he fell from 52 percent to 48 percent last year. I think he may get some push as his years on the ballot wind down, but he's definitely been hurt by the crowded ballot. Needs a huge spike this year to have any chance in the future.

Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina: I wrote about them on Friday. Both were under 30 percent last year and I doubt they get much movement this year. I'm not sure that's a big deal just yet. Last year they had to fight Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine for votes, and this year they're fighting Johnson and Martinez. Once those names are cleared (and maybe Smoltz as well), these two will start receiving more support as the lack of other starting pitching candidates increases.

Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield: My guess is they both fail to get 5 percent, and their more than 1,100 home runs combined will be booted off the ballot.

Jeff Kent: He received 15.1 percent of the vote in his first year. I suppose there's a danger of him falling off the ballot as he's one of those guys -- I'd throw in Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff and Larry Walker in this group as well -- getting lost in the crowded ballot, their Hall of Fame arguments relegated to the deep corners of the Internet.

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