Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Playoff breakdown: If the games were today

Florida State’s place in the top four is now as convincing as its margin of victory.

The Seminoles sank to No. 4 in the latest rankings by the College Football Playoff selection committee, which placed No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 TCU ahead of the only undefeated team remaining. The 12-member committee had only 11 voters again this week, because Mike Gould had travel issues.

That move also widened the gap between TCU and No. 6 Baylor, which owns a head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs but has now been ranked behind them for six straight weeks. No. 5 Ohio State was bumped up one spot in spite of the season-ending injury to starting quarterback J.T. Barrett, putting the Buckeyes right on the bubble heading into Saturday’s Big Ten title game against Wisconsin.

Here’s what the bracket would look like if today's rankings hold:

Mississippi State fell six spots after its loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and Minnesota dropped out of the rankings from No. 18 after its loss to Wisconsin. Georgia Tech moved up five spots after beating rival Georgia, which sank five spots. Ole Miss moved up seven spots.

In the Pac-12, Arizona moved up four spots to No. 7 after clinching the Pac-12 South Division, and Arizona State fell four spots. LSU and USC are both back in the rankings, while Marshall fell out after suffering its first loss of the season.

That would make No. 22 Boise State the front-runner to represent the Group of 5 in a New Year’s Six bowl.

As for the other major bowls, here’s a projection based on the current rankings:

The Orange Bowl lost the ACC champion (FSU), so it gets the next highest-ranked ACC team, No. 11 Georgia Tech. The Orange Bowl then selects the next highest-ranked non-conference champion from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. In this scenario, Ohio State is projected as the Big Ten champ. By contract, displaced conference champs from the SEC and Big Ten don’t go to the Orange Bowl. That would pit the Yellow Jackets against No. 8 Michigan State.

Here’s what New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day could look like, based on today’s rankings:

Dec. 31

12:30 p.m. ET – Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 10 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Kansas State

4 p.m. ET – VIZIO Fiesta Bowl: No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 22 Boise State

8 p.m. ET – Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 11 Georgia Tech vs. No. 8 Michigan State

Jan. 1

12:30 p.m. ET – Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Baylor

5 p.m. ET – Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 TCU

8:30 p.m. ET – Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida State

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